Another issue regarding the future of Electric Vehicles

[wrench]

The US energy grid will be powered by advanced fusion and zero point energy in 15-20 years.
The US military has had it for decades in secret.
Lockheed Martin is a huge military contractor. The word is they are testing these "new" technologies in the back room of GE now.
It will cost us $$$$. No free lunch here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlYClniDFkM

Wind and solar are not cost efficient.

This video is from 7 years ago and the guy says it will be up and running in 5 years. I wonder how it's going. Fusion on the grid is always just around the corner.

I worked R&D on inertial confinement fusion for LLNL over 40 years ago.

They are still using techniques I developed back then for growing the laser optic crystals in the NIF/LIFE program.

I worked for a guy who was on the Manhattan Project and the team at Bell Labs that invented the LASER.

It was a time where we had direction and leadership at the national level, nowadays, I am not so sure.

https://youtu.be/l_USYub3djY

[64\/54Cadillacking]

It would be asinine for automaker to simply eliminate all their ICE engine offerings.

The world doesn't live in some utopia where everyone everywhere can just plug in their EV. Until they can find a way where someone can easily plug in their EV into a standard 120V socket like you have at home, the EV push isn't going to succeed all to well.

It's all about convenience, and accessibility. Many people in the world live in apartments or flats with hardly any place to park a car. How are these people expected to charge an EV and get hundreds of miles of range in a short amount of time? EV's at the moment are geared towards the wealthy or people that own a house with a garage or driveway to charge their car.

It's not feasible to many Americans or people around the world to own a EV. Sure it's cheaper to plug in your EV right now than for paying for a gallon of gas, but again, this all depends on where you live in the country.

I believe where I live in San Diego we have the most expensive utility rates in the entire country. We pay almost 40 cents per K/W hour (rising by the month too) and that doesn't include peak hours where my gas/electric company can charge an even higher rate which they always do from the hours of 4pm-9pm. So if you are doing laundry, cooking dinner using the stove or oven, microwave, have your lights on, watching TV and having to charge your car, your monthly bill can double or triple from what I have been hearing on local TV to many residents of my city.

A $400-600 a month gas/electric bill is insane if you ask me, but not unheard of in CA, and because of a natural gas shortage/ price increases, the utility company has jacked up their rates even higher. So again, EV's aren't a realistic option for a lot of us, nor do I care about saving the environment which supposedly people try to claim it does which it doesn't.

What I care about is time and cost. Eventually gas prices will go down, but the plan from the very beginning with this administration either you like it or not, is too purposely make the U.S. less energy independent to raise gas prices in order to get the public into buying an EV.

How else is GM, Ford and the rest of the auto industry supposed to get a return on their investment unless you create an artificial demand with the help of the administration. Gas prices were rising way before the war in Ukraine as well so that argument would be squashed.

[Big Apple Caddy]

It's a 2017 Accord LX - out the door for just over $21k back then.. admittedly, I'm sure inflation has taken it's toll there too and I haven't priced them out lately... so lets say twice to maybe 2.5X??  Point being if I pay more for something it should deliver more.  I've been shopping for trucks and yes they are lot more than a year or two ago but there are many decent options in the $30-40k range.  If EV's get to the point where I can fully charge in five minutes (without being detrimental to the battery), they are very comparable to an ICE equivalent price wise, I feel very confident it won't burn my garage down (or me in it) - I'm in!  Until that day comes....

The closest Honda match, as far as size/type, to the Lyriq is the Pilot which has a starting price of $38,805 making the Lyriq a little more than 1.5 times higher priced (and that assumes the entry Pilot and the Lyriq are similarly equipped) but it's still not apples to apples since it's comparing a luxury brand to a non-luxury brand.  A good portion of the price difference has nothing to do with ICE versus EV.

I think EV prices will eventually be a non-issue but some of the bigger questions going forward will be how well the country's electric grid will be able to handle the increased demand, and what impact that may have on electricity prices.  Right now, the average residential rate in the U.S. is around 14 cents per kWh.  North Dakota and Nebraska are lowest at just under 10 cents and Hawaii is highest at around 38 cents.

[Big Apple Caddy]

Does anyone know how many miles can be put on a set of EV batteries? Cost of replacement? When one trades in an EV, I would assume the hour meter on the vehicle would be figured in the value of the trade in.

200,000 miles seems to be the most common estimate for today's batteries.  Replacement costs can vary depending on size and other factors but I think the current average is around $130 to $135 per kWh size.

["Cadillac Kid" Greg Surfas 15364]

Current battery cost is down to $100.00 per KWH with a goal of $50.00.
Greg Surfas

[mgrab]

The closest Honda match, as far as size/type, to the Lyriq is the Pilot which has a starting price of $38,805 making the Lyriq a little more than 1.5 times higher priced (and that assumes the entry Pilot and the Lyriq are similarly equipped) but it's still not apples to apples since it's comparing a luxury brand to a non-luxury brand.  A good portion of the price difference has nothing to do with ICE versus EV.

I think EV prices will eventually be a non-issue but some of the bigger questions going forward will be how well the country's electric grid will be able to handle the increased demand, and what impact that may have on electricity prices.  Right now, the average residential rate in the U.S. is around 14 cents per kWh.  North Dakota and Nebraska are lowest at just under 10 cents and Hawaii is highest at around 38 cents.

Still not quite the point I'm trying to make..  At $59k (though I've read north of $70k will be more probable for the majority sold), it should mop the floor with anything below that price point in delivering utility.  That means different things to different folks for me for daily, utilitarian transportation that's: TCO, reliability and it goes the distance I can currently can drive.  For example, my shortest trip to the up north is 580 miles to the SW PA region.  The range on the Lyriq is 300 miles but I'm driving almost exclusively through mountains in hot and cold weather and I never get a good avg MPG on that trip.  For arguments sake lets say it gets me 250 miles.  Usually I can get to southern WV on one tank.  For those of you that have never traveled the Mountaineer Highway, at times you are lucky to find a radio station and often its hard to find a gas station that hasn't had the bathroom door ripped off.  Aside from that, lets say I find a public charging station.  In 10 minutes I get 75 miles, in 30 I get 195... but I really need to full charge and its clear the law of diminishing returns has kicked in as the charge rate is going down.  How long 50 minutes, hour?  Now I go another 250 miles with 80 to go do I charge up another half-hour, probably.  I'm adding at minimum an hour to my drive, is that my definition of "luxury" - no.  To me this car would be a toy.. I have a detached garage for that, that houses my old cars and highly unreliable Audi convertible.  The one attached to the house gets the workhorses that get rode hard.

For some in urban areas and short commutes I'm sure this checks boxes but it's alienating a sizeable segment of the market when you want to go 100% EV by 2030.  A few months ago I was attending a CPE webinar by one of the big four firms on electrification of industrial equipment.  One of the poling questions was your propensity to buy an EV.  Almost 50% said no... do you really want to stop servicing half the market?  Heck, I wouldn't want to lose 10%!  I'm sure they know best... what's the worst that can happen?  Too Big To Fail 2.0?

Mike

[Andrew Trout]

Still not quite the point I'm trying to make..  At $59k (though I've read north of $70k will be more probable for the majority sold), it should mop the floor with anything below that price point in delivering utility. 

Comparing price points is still an odd choice though. There are several cars made that cost significantly more than a new Honda Accord LX and deliver less utility. Any two-door car, be a Corvette, roadster, or exotic will cost more, and offer less utility. Comparing categories makes for an easier apples to apples comparison, like a Lyriq versus an XT6, X5, Q5, XC60, etc. As you stated, TOC and reliability are important parts of the utility of a car. An EV has fewer moving parts and requires less upkeep because of that.

For some in urban areas and short commutes I'm sure this checks boxes but it's alienating a sizeable segment of the market when you want to go 100% EV by 2030.

But that's where most people live, and how they drive. I agree that going purely EV doesn't work for everyone. I disagree with your assertion that an EV alienates a sizable segment of the market. People are simply not driving over 300 miles a day. On average an American drives just under 15,000 miles a year, which works out to 41/miles a day (https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year/) which in turn fits quite nicely into the range a Lyriq or one of it's competitors offers.

That being said, PHEV allows a nice compromise between the two in that you can go short distances (to and from work, errands, around town) with an electric charge for cheap, and have an ICE for longer trips.

[mgrab]

Comparing price points is still an odd choice though. There are several cars made that cost significantly more than a new Honda Accord LX and deliver less utility. Any two-door car, be a Corvette, roadster, or exotic will cost more, and offer less utility. Comparing categories makes for an easier apples to apples comparison, like a Lyriq versus an XT6, X5, Q5, XC60, etc. As you stated, TOC and reliability are important parts of the utility of a car. An EV has fewer moving parts and requires less upkeep because of that.

But that's where most people live, and how they drive. I agree that going purely EV doesn't work for everyone. I disagree with your assertion that an EV alienates a sizable segment of the market. People are simply not driving over 300 miles a day. On average an American drives just under 15,000 miles a year, which works out to 41/miles a day (https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year/) which in turn fits quite nicely into the range a Lyriq or one of it's competitors offers.

That being said, PHEV allows a nice compromise between the two in that you can go short distances (to and from work, errands, around town) with an electric charge for cheap, and have an ICE for longer trips.

Completely agree with the top comment... to me this car would be a toy.  I'm fine with toys.. just not good utilitarian transportation for me.

I don't think anyone really knows how much of the market is going to want to shift.  I can tell you my parents just bought a Highlander hybrid and travel to NJ from SC fairly regularly and this was a concern for them.  I have a family in FL that go to NJ often and drive straight thru the night.  There are many people who do this.  Any company that offers a blend ~50% hybrid, ~20-30% EV, and ~20-30% ICE will probably be best positioned to transition and not lose customers and market share.  I have a hard time believing 100% of current Cadillac customers will remain in 2030 if they don't have an option.  I guess the question is will new customers make up for the loss.

Mike

[Big Apple Caddy]

Current battery cost is down to $100.00 per KWH with a goal of $50.00.

There are two prices to look at.  The average battery cell price may be around $100 per kWh but an actual battery pack would be more like $130 to $135 per kWh.

[Big Apple Caddy]

For some in urban areas and short commutes I'm sure this checks boxes but it's alienating a sizeable segment of the market when you want to go 100% EV by 2030.  A few months ago I was attending a CPE webinar by one of the big four firms on electrification of industrial equipment.  One of the poling questions was your propensity to buy an EV.  Almost 50% said no... do you really want to stop servicing half the market?  Heck, I wouldn't want to lose 10%!  I'm sure they know best... what's the worst that can happen?  Too Big To Fail 2.0?

Given how few EV options there are right now and various myths and unknowns about EVs, polling numbers aren't particularly meaningful at this relatively early stage.  I'm sure plenty of people in the early 1900s said they wouldn't buy an automobile.

In the coming years as EV prices and choices improve, charging speeds improve, ranges improve, more charging stations are built, etc. polls will show more and more consumer interest in EVs but it's not like ICE vehicles are totally going away anytime soon.  Most automakers aren't expecting to be 100% or near 100% electric until 2030 to 2035 at the earliest.

[gkhashem]

Can you just stop with this? We're here to talk to about cars, not whine about grievances. Doing so on the forums makes a very public part of the club less appealing to new members.

I thought the point of the club was classic Cadillacs not junky EVs? If you really want to talk about today's junk you should go to a GM discussion forum. It's loaded with engine issues, transmission issues etc etc.

The whole thread turns me off.

Any cars less than 20-25 years old at this point are just used cars. Over priced at that.

[Jason Edge]

The whole thread turns me off.

There are many discussion threads here that do not interest me and I simply bump down to something that does interest me.   I may or may not respond, regardless. With threads like this one with many viewpoints, I will often just take in the back and forth discussion and try to be a bit open minded to all sides.  If we limited these posts to what was deemed worthy of discussion by one person it would get boring pretty fast.  As long as the discussion remains relevant to Cadillacs past, present and future, I think any topic should be open for discussion. 
Personally I would be interested in an EV, but will wait for the bugs to get worked out and cost to come down. Also, coming from a bit of a hot rod background I have always been intrigued by the instant torque/power almost instantly available with these electric cars.  I just got back from a 1200 mile trip pulling 7,200 lb car and trailer with my Escalade and a car hauler, but those trips are the exception for me. Most of my daily commute might be 20 to 40 miles.

[gkhashem]

I agree with what your saying about costs but is the decision really up to the individual now?

From EV tax credits (where wealthy people get a tax credit to buy a Tesla) to making regulations to make gasoline cars cost prohibitive is this really freedom?

Anything the government subsidizes gets the advantage. The problem here is we are talking about freedom, part of which is a persons ability to get about. Not much more a  basic  freedom than that. Everyone cannot afford a $100K car, so to say buy one is foolish and disingenuous.

Let the market decide, do not force the issue. The world has been ending for the past 50-60 years now, but they keep moving the date back. If saving the world was not big business (along with the political kickbacks) no one would care.

[James Landi]

George,

You bring up some interesting points... and one that I think needs some additional information and thought.   The introduction of the  EV is, as you've stated,  fraught with challenges--- and here's one that few consider.  On average only 5% of the American public buys new cars...so the vast majority of us purchase and drive used, gasoline powered cars.  So the average  Anerican, purchasing  a second hand car is NOT looking for a used EV. It makes no practical  or financial sense. COnsider having to install a charging station for an apartment house or condo dwellers in one of our major, population dense, cities. The financial and technological challenges are well beyond this first iteration of EV's for a major shift away from the internal combustion engine to take hold in any substantial way, unless and until some major technological break through occurs--- .   Happy day,  James 

[Big Apple Caddy]

On average only 5% of the American public buys new cars...so the vast majority of us purchase and drive used, gasoline powered cars.

Where are you getting the 5% number from?  I believe new cars typically account for closer to 30% of total vehicle sales in the U.S. each year.

[James Landi]

Thanks for asking about the statistics, as I may be wrong...  I believe around  15 million new cars were sold last year in America, and there are 228 million "drivers" in AMerica... so I'm thinking that around 6% or fewer of licensed American drivers treat themselves to new cars.   Please correct me if I've screwed up the math or the entire point I was trying to make, which is that we, as a nation, continue to depend  and will depend on cars that run on gasoline until quick charging stations are nearly ubiguitous (since my assumption is based on two limiting factors--- the limitations of private charging in densely populated cities, as well as the impractical range limits ev's.  Again, thank you for challenging my post.   James
   

[jwwseville60]

Until the gas station infrastructure in the USA catches up with tons of charging stations, and we have more an efficient fusion free-energy grid of a sort––something better––the EV thing is just a trendy, "greener-than-thou" fad for a few hipsters, Hollywood celebs and geeky early adopters.

Oil companies will drag their feet till the bitter end, just you watch. Used EV cars dont make sense. Range is a problem still. Batteries are heavy and dirty. Detroit has little incentive to build EVs so far other than brand leader glitzy toys.

Elon Musk is a military contractor and a whack job nut like Howard Hughes. I dont trust him or his cars to save the planet. Musk will have a nervous breakdown soon like his artificial intelligence cars.

Its the future, yes, but there's not much infrastructure to support it. Not yet.
Give it 10 years. I want to drive electric too. I like torque.

[Scot Minesinger]

Most consumers did not know that there is a six passenger Cadillac RWD V-8 powered with gobs of power and 10,000lb towing capacity that delivers 25mpg on regular gas cruising the highway at 75mph with ac on.  And that was 27 years ago with the RWD Fleetwood.  It is unlikely that the majority of consumers will make a logical choice on car purchases.  EV manufacturers and other entities have successfully marketed them, and they are likely the future.  There will of course be glitches along the way.  EV's do offer advantages and they make sense for many consumers.  Unfortunately much of the electric power they operate from as we all know is fossil fuel burned power plants.  So it is shifting the fossil fuel burning to a central location.

[Big Apple Caddy]

Thanks for asking about the statistics, as I may be wrong...  I believe around  15 million new cars were sold last year in America, and there are 228 million "drivers" in AMerica... so I'm thinking that around 6% or fewer of licensed American drivers treat themselves to new cars.   Please correct me if I've screwed up the math or the entire point I was trying to make, which is that we, as a nation, continue to depend  and will depend on cars that run on gasoline until quick charging stations are nearly ubiguitous (since my assumption is based on two limiting factors--- the limitations of private charging in densely populated cities, as well as the impractical range limits ev's.  Again, thank you for challenging my post.   James

You are correct that approximately 15 million new vehicles were sold last year in the U.S. but not everyone buys a car every year so comparing to the total number of licensed drivers is irrelevant.

The total number of new and used vehicles sold last year was around 55 million and with 15 million of those being new, that means over 27% of vehicles purchased were new.  This is a slightly lower percentage than usual due to the chip shortage, supply chain, etc. issues on new vehicles.

As far as EV versus ICE vehicles go, I think ICE vehicle sales (new and used) will continue to dominate for many years to come especially since most automakers aren't expecting to be 100% or near 100% electric until 2030 to 2035 at the earliest.

[Steve Lomas]

As to the OP, I believe a lot of charging systems require downloading apps to use them, which potentially share a lot more personal info than your credit card at the pump..

But that seems like a relatively superficial issue, I think the larger uncertainty is in the ideological appeal of EVs.

When I was in high school, recycling paper was the 'big planet saving' movement. I remember wondering how long it would take, before everyone realized that new wood literally grows on trees in a process far more environmentally friendly than industrial scale chemical processing. It took over 30 years but you rarely see 'recycled' today versus 'from a [] forest'

I think we are starting to see the same increased awareness of environmental problems in other areas of 'green' industry -  along with recognizing which chemical compound has actually been making the planet more green all along..