Just a thought on LaSalle survival rate...

[1937 LaSalle coupe]

Hello everyone. Just got my 'LaSalle, Cadillac's Companion Car' book. What a nice coffee table book. There was a total of 205,241 LaSalles produced from '27-'40. According to Ron VanGeldren, he figures about 850 LaSalles are still around. He thinks this would be less than 3%. I don't know if he basing 850 LaSalles off of info that he knows. But 850 is only .41% of 205,241. I would think that this number is a rather low survival rate. At a 3% rate of the surviving LaSalles, it would be 6,157. That rate might be too high. Ron VanGeldren or Matt Larson, if you are around please shed some light on this topic. I don't know what to believe whether there is 850 surviving LaSalles or the 3% figure.  Anybody have any comments? Thanks for any comments. John Lehman... CLC# 26365...   

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

3% seems a bit light to me considering the LaSalle was a semi-premium automobile. On the other hand, since all LaS are prewar, chances are likely that many were scrapped in the war effort. A lot of prewar iron met their fate that way. It's very difficult to say.

[C.R. Patton II]

Hello John

I appreciate your inquisitiveness about the LaSalle automobile. Cadillac provided Harley Earl with the authority and power to create fantastic designs. Larry Fisher and the General Motors Executive Committee made the right decision.

We are very fortunate that Ron and Matt sacrificed their time to research and develop a book for aficionados. The data and illustrations are remarkable. This text is a must read for automotive historians. The authors unselfishly allow the proceeds to go to our CLC Museum & Research Center.

I do not represent the authors but I believe their conclusions were based on the data analysis and automobile attrition.

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

Sometime ago I had read an article regarding survival rates and developed a general rule-of-thumb formula of -5% per year average. If we use 1933/1934 as the middle year for La Salle production and assume an even statistical distribution for the years 1927-1940 of 205,000 cars, the calculation would be made as follows:

2013 - 1933 = 80     

Then take (1.05) to the 80th power which is approx 50.  Divide 205,000 by 50 which should mean around 4,100 LaSalles that should exist today. Half that would still be over 2,000 or approximately 1% of all La Salles produced. Personally, I don't buy the 850 figure at all.

[C.R. Patton II]

Hello

We are very privileged to be a part of an organization with members from varied professions. One such commodity is Jeff Hansen. This gentleman is a technology statistician expert. For years he has maintained and updated our CLC Judging tabulations and procedures. He also established and maintained this forum. We must also be grateful for the work at the Grand Nationals by his children.

Jeff kindly informed me that we only had 58 LaSalle cars registered for the last five Grand Nationals combined! Registered does not mean actually present. For example, there was one registered last year in St. Augustine, but zero present. Additional evidence of the scarcity of these cars is from an analysis of the CLC International Membership Directory. This global data is well managed by the Book Family. There are only 674 listed.

Of course we must sympathize with those owners that do not experience the benefits and joy of membership in our club. Always carry membership applications and club literature in your glove box to swell our ranks!

[Jay Friedman]

For '49 Cadillacs I've always assumed, perhaps wrongfully, that the survival rate is roughly twice the number listed in the CLC International Membership Directory.  This is to take into account the fact that some owners are not "joiners" and don't belong to any old car club, while others only belong to other clubs in the US and elsewhere.

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

Unfortunately the AACA does not keep track of member owned vehicles nor a lot of other car organizations that would apply to the LaSalle such as the CCCA. Even still, there are many classic car owners who aren't members of any car clubs at all making the task all the more difficult.

If there are 674 LaSalles listed in the CLC, I would estimate that to represent 1/4 to 1/5 of all LaSalles extant- somewhere and in some state which is consistent with data for other vehicles of similar age and stature. Just an opinion.

On the other extreme, 300 out of 400 Dusenberg Js are known & accounted- for an astonishing survival rate of 75%. 

[C.R. Patton II]

Hello Eric

Our Chief Judge Carl Steig just informed me that in the past five years there were 58 LaSalle vehicles registered for the Grand Nationals but only 27 present. Considering we had over 600 total automobiles registered, my statistical friends that calculates to  4.5%.  Using just one formula for attrition is inaccurate. Combining all the factors is the wise theory.

Ladies and gentlemen I commend Ron and Matt on a job well done!

[Fred Pennington 25635]

A question; What do you cancider a surviving LaSalle? Is it a rusting body in a field, a parts car, a restorable car, modified car or is it a 90+ point car.
If memory serves and it usually doesn't anymore the book referred to 850 as being the known LaSalles.
Known would most likely mean titled and registered or in a public museum the other definitions would be almost impossible to research.
So depending on your definition, survival rate could be just about any number you what to make it.

Just my thoughts

Fred P.

[C.R. Patton II]

Hello Fred

If I understand your query you want to know WHAT constitutes a LaSalle for our club count? Good question. An owner/member may include any LaSalle or Cadillac that she/he owns. You are correct that it could range from a trailer queen to vehicle used as decoration in a field (uncommon to be a LaSalle).

I also wanted to share the promise that Cadillac instituted which can be found in the LaSalle: Cadillac's Companion Car on page 320 and 321. When Cadillac decided to discontinue using the LaSalle name at the end of the 1940 model year, there were an estimated 32,000-35,000 LaSalles still on the road (total produced from 1927-1940 was 205,241).

                                LaSalle's Lifetime Warranty

[1937 LaSalle coupe]

Hello everyone. My main questioning is that the figures that are quoted in the book that don't add up. 850 out of 205,241 is not ~ 3%. That figure is .41%. A very large difference. 3% of 205,241 is 6,158. Someones math does not add up. As to vehicles being turned in to help the war effort of WWII, I can't see cars that were only 5-7 years being scrapped. WWII started for (US) in 1941. So cars built in 1935-1937 were only 5-7 years old. Actually in the prime of their life. Look at the production figures of this time period. Also in 1938 there was a recession. So people usually hold onto their valuable possessions like cars and kept them running as long as they could. I think WWII scrap effort concerned cars from the very begining of production through maybe early 1930's. This would have taken alot of Model A & T's off the road.  Also to Mr. C.R. Patton, 27 out of 600 is 4.5% and not .045% you are off by a factor of 100. Thanks guys for the comments. John Lehman... CLC # 26365...   

[C.R. Patton II]

Hello Mr. Lehman

You are correct my decimal should be at 4.5%, my apology. I hope to have dinner with Mr. Larson on Thursday.

[Blade]

I might also add that we have to calculate original values of vehicles to predict the survival rates of them. The higher the original value of a car the more likely that they survive. This is probably best reflected with the fact that over 90% of all Rolls Royces ever produces are registered and still on the road. Although the LaSalle cars weren't the high end models but they were still priced above the average vehicles, therefore I would put a bit higher survival estimates on them compared to the average vehicles.