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All Electric by 2035 and the collector car hobby.

Started by 76eldo, January 30, 2021, 01:15:57 PM

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cadillacmike68

Quote from: 5390john on January 30, 2021, 07:45:35 PM
The auto industry is under ENORMOUS pressure on a global scale to largely eliminate fossil fuels by around 2035.
It is going to happen.
Here's what else WILL happen:

1) Charging infrastructure will improve drastically to become roughly equivalent to a gas station on every corner, AND in your garage. It will happen sooner than you think.

2) Battery technology will improve dramatically. MUCH longer range and MUCH faster recharge times. GM already is testing solid state batteries, and someone WILL invent new paradigm technologies to keep improving energy storage capability. The reward for doing so is so great that it is impossible for it NOT to happen. Think of it this way; if you came up with the better mousetrap, the world will not only beat a path to your door, but you will have wealth as if you were the next Saudi Arabia.

3) Current battery technology is not practical for class 8 heavy trucks, BUT fuel cells are. The latest speculation is that the scale of renewable electrical energy (windmills, etc.) can be dramatically increased, to the point that there is more available than necessary. The excess can be used to manufacture hydrogen, which can be easily stored and used in fuel cells. GM has years of research and study on fuel cells, and it is about to become commercially viable. $$$$$

4) Gasoline will still be available, but due to supply and demand, the supply will gradually decrease as economies of scale gradually decrease, and price will go up as demand decreases and economies of scale decreases. GONNA HAPPEN! Collectible cars as we know them will still be cool, and they will get much more rare. As drivelines wear out, many IC drivelines will be replaced with electric motors and next generation (smaller and more powerful) batteries.

5) It is unlikely that electric cars will have a CAFE standard. There is no reason, other than limitations on physical size, to assume that oversize cars such as mid-70's Caddys will never again become available. Could happen, and my guess is that it will.

6) Manufacturers of electric vehicles will face a somewhat different business model than existing auto makers. Electric motors and drivelines are dramatically simpler than IC drivelines and the cost and infrastructure necessary to make an electric vehicle is considerably less. That will open the door to smaller, but very well capitalized manufacturing companies to go into the auto assembly business. That will result in more brands in the marketplace. These brands will compete for the consumer, resulting in winners and losers. Over time some of these brands and models will become collectible.

The history of the auto industry repeats itself and car junkies everywhere can continue the hobby.

My 2 cents worth!!
John Adams

It will Never fully occur.

The Military isn't going to run its combat and logistical vehicles off electric power. Jets don't fly on electricity and 65,000 ton ships don't run off electricity either.

COL: "Captain, start the attack in 10 minutes"
CPT: "Sir, the tanks are still recharging and need another 45 minutes to get recharged"

It's just Not going to happen.

As for me, my endurance for driving is about 14-18 hours a day max, with a co-driver. That's about 800-1,000 miles a day. After that we are both bushed out. Fuel stops are 5-10 mins depending on whether or not we need refueling ourselves or need to avail ourselves of the facilities. However there is NO electric car that can run for that time. So No thanks for us.

Regards,
"Cadillac" Mike

64\/54Cadillacking

#21
The entire problem I have with the mandate, is that where is our choice as consumers in all of this? Why does the government feel like it knows what’s best for us or actually cares about the health of the nation?

The only way EVs will work in this country,  and have people start to buy them in the future, is to slowly start bulldozing gas stations, making it even harder for ICE powered vehicles to pass emissions, charge higher registration fees, tax the crap out of buying ICE vehicles, and basically make it more expensive to own one.

That’s right, EVs won’t sell all that well without government tax incentives. GM has to be talking to the heads in government that control CAFE standards and other means of automotive decision making that are in power to eventually FORCE Americans to abandon their gas powered vehicle one way or another.

Like CadillacMike said, the Military won’t be able to utilize EV technology in wartime combat. Tanks, planes, fighter jets can’t just take “recharging” breaks in the middle of a fight. An then imagine if they did use EVs in every military vehicle? Imagine the cost per unit for say a battle tank?

It would be economically wasteful because the cost of them would be insanely expensive. Plus, the massive weight of batteries, the lengthy recharging times,  and potential safety hazards that come along with large batteries that could blow up in a fire fight.

I also don’t know how the automakers making EVs can truly make them safe in a vehicle crash with the potential of a serious fire and exploding material happening.

Let the market decide on what it wants. That’s why we are the country we have always been, is by letting the people make their own decisions in how they want to live, what to buy, and what to do in life. The less government the better.

Until people can fully recharge an EV in 5 mins at a charging station, then I can see the potential downfall of consumer ownership in ICE vehicles. Nobody likes waiting for anything, especially when time is valuable to us, and I can’t imagine owners of EVs lining up down the street to recharge their car that will take a half hour to fully charge.

Convenience is still king this is why liquor stores, corner markets are so valuable because nobody wants to walk into a huge store just to grab a soda and wait in line for 10 mins or more, when they could have just driven down the street to a 7-Eleven and be out in less than 3 mins.

BTW I don’t think we as Classic Cadillac owners have too much to worry about. There will always be someone in this industry that will find a way to make our cars compliant if the bans really do become reality. Converting to a fully electric parts is possible although cost will be high initially, but over time, those cost will come down and maybe there will be a company out there that could make the conversion easy and affordable to do. Maybe have our cars run on both gas and strictly battery powered. Whoever creates this invention and adaptation, will be very successful IMO.
Currently Rides:
1964 Sedan Deville
1954 Cadillac Fleetwood 60 Special
1979 Lincoln Mark V Cartier Designer Series
2007 Lexus LS 460L (extended wheelbase edition)

Previous Rides:
1987 Brougham D' Elegance
1994 Fleetwood Bro
1972 Sedan Deville
1968 Coupe Deville
1961 Lincoln Continental
1993 Lincoln Town Car Signature Series
1978 Lincoln Continental ( R.I.P.) 1978-2024 😞

fishnjim

Another way to say it;
If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything.

Andrew Trout

#23
We're at the precipice of another milestone in humanity. They've certainly been disruptive in the past. The Industrial Revolution is a big one, with population shifts and changes as our economy needed fewer people to work a farm. There were significant changes in our world as railroads become more commonplace, and then automobiles several decades later became more commonplace. A lot of infrastructure had to be built up for both to operate successfully, including the actual railroads or paved roads to allow for safe, reliable travel. There were also disruptions to supporting industries with the rise of the automobile, such as coach builders and farriers needed less and mechanics, fuel, and spare parts needed more. Even way in which our homes are designed and built has changed with the car. Homes now having attached garages instead of detached carriage houses, and newly built homes having the main ingress/egress for the homeowners be via the garage instead of the front door.

There's been a lot of discussion on this forum about the infrastructure challenges facing EVs, and they are absolutely correct. More charging stations, the ability for owners without off-street parking to recharge, larger capacity batteries, rapid charging batteries, and the ability to supply clean electricity via systems such as solar panels and wind turbines. Humanity had similar challenges roughly 100 years ago as the Model T was being produced by Ford, and look at us now.

What will happen to collectible cars? I have no idea. I'm in my mid-30s, so hopefully I've got about another 50 years of driving ahead of me. I'd like to see a healthy secondary market that can retrofit EV drivetrains into classic cars. There's already a niche secondary market to convert ICE classic cars into EV-powered cars, usually with drivetrains from wrecked EVs. ICON did one example (https://www.icon4x4.com/derelict/pastprojects/37) and Charge, a company in Britain is making Mustangs with EV drivetrains. To be affordable for more classic car owners, the secondary market will need to be able to purchase drivetrains directly from manufacturers to retrofit into classic cars. I can see popular cars being available first, such as Tri-Five Chevys, Ford Mustangs, Corvettes, etc. being more economically viable due to the sheer number on the road versus Cadillacs.

QuoteThe Military isn't going to run its combat and logistical vehicles off electric power. Jets don't fly on electricity and 65,000 ton ships don't run off electricity either.

I think that's a bit of a straw man argument. 5390john said 'largely' not 'completely'. I'm not sure what the the military's different mobility and readiness requirements have to do with civilian products. That being said, many ships and boats in the US Navy are nuclear-powered, and there are hybrid systems being installed in newly built destroyers that extends their range. The US Navy in general is aware of the importance of fuel and power for readiness, with investment in and usage of biofuels for equipment, and solar/wind power for bases (source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2016/09/14/skys-limit-navys-biofuel-focus/90326310/).
Rochester, NY
1961 Convertible

chrisntam

But I like the smell of a rich, carbureted engine running on a cold morning... 

;)

1970 Deville Convertible 
Dallas, Texas

TJ Hopland

Quote from: chrisntam on February 01, 2021, 01:33:12 PM
But I like the smell of a rich, carbureted engine running on a cold morning... 

;)

Many or maybe all electric cars now have some sort of noise makers so they will have to start working on simulated smells.   Just another menu you can bring up,   want it to smell like good old leaded?   Maybe you actually like ethanol?  Remember your race days of pure alcohol?    Maybe you are a diesel person?   All at your fingertips.   It will be like printer ink, expensive little cartridges. 
73 Eldo convert w/FiTech EFI, over 30 years of ownership and counting
Somewhat recently deceased daily drivers, 80 Eldo Diesel & 90 CDV
And other assorted stuff I keep buying for some reason

Dr. John T. Welch

Quote from: chrisntam on February 01, 2021, 01:33:12 PM
But I like the smell of a rich, carbureted engine running on a cold morning... 

;)
[/quote

Getting rid of the intoxicating aroma of a choked startup on a cold morning is like expecting women to give up perfume.  Nevergonnahappen.com
John T. Welch
CLC   24277

Harley Earl

#27
Quote from: Dr. John T. Welch on February 01, 2021, 04:49:12 PM
Quote from: chrisntam on February 01, 2021, 01:33:12 PM
But I like the smell of a rich, carbureted engine running on a cold morning... 

;)
[/quote

Getting rid of the intoxicating aroma of a choked startup on a cold morning is like expecting women to give up perfume.  Nevergonnahappen.com

My 2019 EV has the option of a "Winter" or "Summer" smell via the HVAC system along with an ionizer.  I prefer the leather seating smell!  The '50 Cadillac upon COLD startup makes up for the EVs lack of a delicious hydrocarbon scent that us car folks enjoy!

The collector car hobby is not going anywhere.  Big tent that we can all share.  EVs share many of the attributes that we all LOVE about our Cadillacs; TORQUE, QUIET, interesting/cutting edge options and a CLOUD-LIKE RIDE!
Hoping for a Standard Trans Cimarron

Previous
1950 Series 61 Sedan - Savoy Gray
1974 Coupe de Ville - Victorian Amber Firemist
1959 Coupe de Ville - Brenton Blue
And 20 "other" Cadillacs from the 40s to the 80s

cadillac ken

Two things here: The wheels of change turn slowly-- very slowly.  Secondly I always have said; follow the money.  SEMA is a multi million dollar outfit as is the aftermarket parts companies that supply ICE parts and of course so are the petroleum companies.  They don't call them "Big Oil" for nothin'.

Classic cars are our history.  Icons to the USA and the rest of the world.  They are coveted by the Swiss, Germans, Japanese and many more.  Our contribution is massive.  I can see the electric vehicles as a yes, they are going to happen.  What I don't see is the decimation of the hobby or the millions of dollars that so many companies have invested to support it.

To be sure if I was not a hobbyist or if this hobby was not the whole of my business for 30 years, I would probably own an electric car for the mundane trips and errands.  I have no problem with them.  I'm guessing most folks commute is not one they cherish every day-- and certainly not in a 40 year old or older classic-- which they probably would never expose to so many bad drivers on a daily basis.   I don't see any of this EV talk as he sky is falling.  But to be sure their certainly needs to be a cleaner sky up their.

Cheers, Ken

64\/54Cadillacking

The biggest problem with our hobby in general is the declining interest in younger people wanting to own and fix old Cadillacs, as well as the high cost of owning them. The hot-rod scene will always have their crowd, same with the Low-rider scene, but even those guys are struggling to gain interest from the younger generations to keep the movement going.

Young kids are way too interested in technology, than cars. I can possibly see the import or modern muscle car crowds being popular for many years to come simply due to the fact that trying to find parts or knowing how to repair them is a lot easier for any shop to work on today. Vs our classics where many shops today refuse or don’t have the staff that knows how to repair vintage cars. If they do, they charge a premium which some people can’t afford.

I know the shop manager for Chip Foose, where the show “Overhaulin” is made. He knows a lot about this industry as he’s worked with Chip for almost 30 years. We spoke about the state of the restoration market, and he told me that he gives the industry about another 10 years, and the rate of business for a lot of resto and or repair shops will decline. He said because the majority of owners that can afford to pay $50,000-100,000 for a restoration are all older guys that are all dying off.

He said many of their children don’t want their parents/grandparents cars, or have any interest in them, so they go to auction or just sit in a garage somewhere not finished or finished and not driven.

He said Chips business during Covid was actually very high since many wealthy older guys with classics, wanted to restore their rides before something could happen to them. It was based off fear.

This is coming from someone that does this job day in and day out, and I notice the lack of interest in younger people that are into our Cadillacs. It’s the unknown that frightens them, plus if you can’t do basic maintenance on a car, that’s a major issue for vintage Cadillac ownership.

Unless your rich and can easily afford to pay a shop to do everything for you, but even then, nobody is going to care for your car, and do the research on how and what parts will fit correctly in your old Caddy than yourself. I just hope we as enthusiasts in the future can simply go for a cruise in our cars without being scrutinized and ridiculed for what we enjoy.
Currently Rides:
1964 Sedan Deville
1954 Cadillac Fleetwood 60 Special
1979 Lincoln Mark V Cartier Designer Series
2007 Lexus LS 460L (extended wheelbase edition)

Previous Rides:
1987 Brougham D' Elegance
1994 Fleetwood Bro
1972 Sedan Deville
1968 Coupe Deville
1961 Lincoln Continental
1993 Lincoln Town Car Signature Series
1978 Lincoln Continental ( R.I.P.) 1978-2024 😞

cadillacmike68

#30
Quote from: 64/54Cadillacking on February 01, 2021, 12:42:06 AM
The entire problem I have with the mandate, is that where is our choice as consumers in all of this? Why does the government feel like it knows what’s best for us or actually cares about the health of the nation?

The only way EVs will work in this country,  and have people start to buy them in the future, is to slowly start bulldozing gas stations, making it even harder for ICE powered vehicles to pass emissions, charge higher registration fees, tax the crap out of buying ICE vehicles, and basically make it more expensive to own one.

That’s right, EVs won’t sell all that well without government tax incentives. GM has to be talking to the heads in government that control CAFE standards and other means of automotive decision making that are in power to eventually FORCE Americans to abandon their gas powered vehicle one way or another.

Like CadillacMike said, the Military won’t be able to utilize EV technology in wartime combat. Tanks, planes, fighter jets can’t just take “recharging” breaks in the middle of a fight. An then imagine if they did use EVs in every military vehicle? Imagine the cost per unit for say a battle tank?

It would be economically wasteful because the cost of them would be insanely expensive. Plus, the massive weight of batteries, the lengthy recharging times,  and potential safety hazards that come along with large batteries that could blow up in a fire fight.

I also don’t know how the automakers making EVs can truly make them safe in a vehicle crash with the potential of a serious fire and exploding material happening.

Let the market decide on what it wants. That’s why we are the country we have always been, is by letting the people make their own decisions in how they want to live, what to buy, and what to do in life. The less government the better.

Until people can fully recharge an EV in 5 mins at a charging station, then I can see the potential downfall of consumer ownership in ICE vehicles. Nobody likes waiting for anything, especially when time is valuable to us, and I can’t imagine owners of EVs lining up down the street to recharge their car that will take a half hour to fully charge.

Convenience is still king this is why liquor stores, corner markets are so valuable because nobody wants to walk into a huge store just to grab a soda and wait in line for 10 mins or more, when they could have just driven down the street to a 7-Eleven and be out in less than 3 mins.

BTW I don’t think we as Classic Cadillac owners have too much to worry about. There will always be someone in this industry that will find a way to make our cars compliant if the bans really do become reality. Converting to a fully electric parts is possible although cost will be high initially, but over time, those cost will come down and maybe there will be a company out there that could make the conversion easy and affordable to do. Maybe have our cars run on both gas and strictly battery powered. Whoever creates this invention and adaptation, will be very successful IMO.

The bolded part says it all. In addition I stand by my remarks on the military and commercial aviation and shipping as well.

Quote from: Andrew Trout on February 01, 2021, 11:11:45 AM
We're at the precipice of another milestone in humanity. They've certainly been disruptive in the past. The Industrial Revolution is a big one, with population shifts and changes as our economy needed fewer people to work a farm. There were significant changes in our world as railroads become more commonplace, and then automobiles several decades later became more commonplace. A lot of infrastructure had to be built up for both to operate successfully, including the actual railroads or paved roads to allow for safe, reliable travel. There were also disruptions to supporting industries with the rise of the automobile, such as coach builders and farriers needed less and mechanics, fuel, and spare parts needed more. Even way in which our homes are designed and built has changed with the car. Homes now having attached garages instead of detached carriage houses, and newly built homes having the main ingress/egress for the homeowners be via the garage instead of the front door.

There's been a lot of discussion on this forum about the infrastructure challenges facing EVs, and they are absolutely correct. More charging stations, the ability for owners without off-street parking to recharge, larger capacity batteries, rapid charging batteries, and the ability to supply clean electricity via systems such as solar panels and wind turbines. Humanity had similar challenges roughly 100 years ago as the Model T was being produced by Ford, and look at us now.

What will happen to collectible cars? I have no idea. I'm in my mid-30s, so hopefully I've got about another 50 years of driving ahead of me. I'd like to see a healthy secondary market that can retrofit EV drivetrains into classic cars. There's already a niche secondary market to convert ICE classic cars into EV-powered cars, usually with drivetrains from wrecked EVs. ICON did one example (https://www.icon4x4.com/derelict/pastprojects/37) and Charge, a company in Britain is making Mustangs with EV drivetrains. To be affordable for more classic car owners, the secondary market will need to be able to purchase drivetrains directly from manufacturers to retrofit into classic cars. I can see popular cars being available first, such as Tri-Five Chevys, Ford Mustangs, Corvettes, etc. being more economically viable due to the sheer number on the road versus Cadillacs.

I think that's a bit of a straw man argument. 5390john said 'largely' not 'completely'. I'm not sure what the the military's different mobility and readiness requirements have to do with civilian products. That being said, many ships and boats in the US Navy are nuclear-powered, and there are hybrid systems being installed in newly built destroyers that extends their range. The US Navy in general is aware of the importance of fuel and power for readiness, with investment in and usage of biofuels for equipment, and solar/wind power for bases (source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2016/09/14/skys-limit-navys-biofuel-focus/90326310/).

As a Retired Logistics Army Colonel, I believe I have a much greater insight into this.

Civilian Products: except for the Combat (tracked) vehicles, most of the ground force comes from companies that make civilian items and more production goes into the civilian items.

Usage: Do you know how much fuel an Armored Division uses?  About 1,000,000 gallons per day when it's on the move.

Ships: ONLY the Subs (not all) and CVNs are Nuclear powered. That leaves several Hundred oil powered ships. All using oil or something that is Burned. There is only so much bio-fuel that can be made, and it's not enough. 

Commercial aviation and shipping is all oil powered, or something that is Burned to make heat that powers the turbines, etc. That isn't going away for a loooooong time. I still haven't seen a nuclear or solar powered airplane.

This is why the hypocrisy of certain high profile idiots are so annoying to me.


Regards,
"Cadillac" Mike

TJ Hopland

I'm curious of those that are in the 'have to recharge in 5 mins' camp how often do you have to go more than say 200 miles in one day?
73 Eldo convert w/FiTech EFI, over 30 years of ownership and counting
Somewhat recently deceased daily drivers, 80 Eldo Diesel & 90 CDV
And other assorted stuff I keep buying for some reason

Glen

#32
I think the concept of a service station for recharging your EV is not workable.  Right now new construction of shopping malls require parking stalls with charging stations.  An indication of what is coming. 

My thought is that charging stations will be everywhere.  First of all is your own garage.  All you need is a dryer outlet near your car to plug your own charger in (the charger may be built into the car).  All the hotels/motels will have charging stations in most of their parking lot you just use your door key card and the bill will be added to your room, or use your charge card.  When you get up in the morning your car is fully charged.  Most of the restaurants will also have charging stations in their parking lots so your car is charged as you eat. 
The big question in my mind is how will the governments collect road tax on EVs? 

Working in a Navy Shipyard, I don’t think there are any diesel subs in the fleet anymore.  All fleet subs and aircraft carriers are nukes.  The Navy experimented with Nuclear Cruisers.  But they did not last.  Cruisers and Destroyers are gas turbine now. 
Glen Houlton CLC #727 
CLCMRC benefactor #104

39LaSalleDriver

#33
I have a theory that none of the above scenarios are going to be realistic. The main reason being time. While I wouldn't want to put a timetable on it, it is my fear that over the next 50-100 years (if not sooner) civilization is going to look a lot more like "Mad Max" than "Star Trek". Reason being, the economic and societal trajectory we are currently on now in the US is unsustainable by any reasonable persons standard. With the level of reckless spending that our government has engaged in for the last say 30 years, at some point the economy will have to implode with a ferocity that makes the Great Depression look like child's play. We aren't hurtling towards an economic cliff, we have jumped over it full on and are flailing in the air like a cartoon character. By the time any of these developing technologies can be effectively and widely implemented, it will be too late.

Like others, I point no fingers at anybody's political views or affiliations. There is plenty of blame to go around. I do however look at the realities around us. When and if we do reach the point where economy, government and society collapses, technological development will assuredly grind to a halt. Oh, sure, the knowledge will still be there, but there will be no infrastructure of people, finances, or resources to sustain it. As a result, we will still be reliant on older, salvageable technology and machinery that we can piece together to keep up some standard of living as we know it. So far as I can envision the future, the most benign scenario of this would be like Cuba today. Where you see guys patching old cars up with lawnmower parts to try and keep what few cars are left running. At the other extreme, you would likely see a world much like the aforementioned "Mad Max" where gasoline becomes the most precious commodity and those who are willing to steal or kill for it are plentiful. Any way you cut it, I don't see car hobbyists other than those who are ultra wealthy or elite in this new world being able to sustain it.
Jon Isaacson

1939 LaSalle 5019

Anderson

#34
Quote from: TJ Hopland on February 03, 2021, 08:32:33 PM
I'm curious of those that are in the 'have to recharge in 5 mins' camp how often do you have to go more than say 200 miles in one day?
It's an average of...say, 2-5x/month for me (depending on how some roadtrips shake out).  For me, a round-trip to Charlottesville is around 300 miles (give or take), DC is about the same (Baltimore is about 200 miles one way, and that's also prone to traffic issues in and around DC), and Florida...well, that's often split over two days, but if not it's one rather long day.  Still, that's a serious consideration since when it /does/ happen it's an issue if I'm having to (for example) spend 4-5 hours on charging stops on the way down to Florida*...I'd rather not be forced to randomly stop for a spell wherever the meter starts running low.  There's a reason that my standard is a "practical" range of 300 miles (which effectively requires a "sticker" range of closer to 400).

Now, I'll be honest...I question whether the "total conversion" is going to actually happen.  I think there are enough use cases where electric just doesn't work that at a bare minimum GMC might be "stuck" offering a hybrid option (since "my truck ran out of gas in the middle of nowhere" can probably be fixed rather more easily than "my truck ran out of power in the middle of nowhere")...but I can also see a situation where for all intents and purposes GM is selling a handful of lines (maybe a pickup and an SUV or two) with a stagnated engine design because those use cases still need the sale but the cost to overhaul the engine simply doesn't make sense.  I think there's a good chance that you're going to have 5-10% of the market that will be hard to "lever out" (I'm also guessing that this might end up being a diesel-dominated segment, BTW, since diesel locomotives probably also aren't going anywhere for a while) and TBH I also think once you're down to that point a lot of the political pressure will also die back (since as indicated, at some point gasoline [or diesel] is simply the byproduct of the petrochemical industry's production of "other stuff").  Basically, I see a situation where GM is selling 250k not-entirely-electric vehicles a year to be more realistic than zero (since the risk is simply surrendering that use case to Ford, whatever form the remains of Chrysler are called by then, or someone else).

Edit: And of course, I've omitted use cases that center around power problems.  CA's rolling blackouts are a pretty good example of a pitfall here.

To be sure, I believe that improvements will happen (especially as the market has started to reach a critical mass), but I do question whether the rate of scaling will bring down costs enough.  We're nowhere near a Chevy Spark electric equivalent turning up...the Cybertruck is 2-3x the cost of an F-150 and the cheapest Tesla (the Model 3) is still nearly a $40k investment up front while resale values are still arguably too high (thanks to constrained supplies on the used car front) and repair bills are rumored to be...problematic...in the case of a collision.  So we've still got a distance to go.  Moreover, AFAICT Tesla (in particular) is mostly making money on things like CAFE credits rather than on vehicle sales...so it'll be interesting to see where prices go if automakers are having to make a profit on these sales without things like that to help them.

*This wasn't part of my use case for about a decade (I'd take the train or fly instead), but Winnie the Flu has had a certain complex impact on my travel patterns.  The longer-term question is really whether I'm going to end up reverting when this is all said and done...I'm rather enjoying having /my/ car with me in Florida instead of a rental.

cadillac ken

All of this is should also serve as a harbinger to those selling used and aftermarket parts--- as in getting a little dose of realism and begin to accept offers and sales of their goods.  I've seen where many parts in the past were highly coveted as used parts and as such were priced into the stratosphere--- until the advent of cheaper reproductions made their way into the market. Then those holding on for top dollar were left out in the cold holding onto their parts.

This hobby, as has been discussed many times, is showing signs of atrophy.  I don't think EVs will eradicate it but it will have quite an effect on it.  Us old guys are literally dying off and the younger folks that have any interest in our cars is minimal at best. Of course that could change but the handing off of the baton with the same fervor and enthusiasm we have for the hobby is seriously in doubt in my mind.  Most of us shrug off the "tech".  The younger generation has been raised on it.  And is in my mind the reason most cars these days on the dealers lots were designed to sell the tech not the aesthetics.  A big reason most cars look all alike these days.  Tech: number 1 selling point.  Aesthetics: a distant second.


Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621

#36
The young (and broke) today will be old (and wealthier) tomorrow and I constantly see young people becoming involved in the old car hobby every day even with what little resources they have. 

Hardly a day passes on FB where some younger person doesn't show off some recent vintage Cadillac purchase and that's just the Cadillac pages because those are the only ones I follow. No doubt the same holds true for other makes, which combined, the additions would be far greater.

I don't necessarily see EVs in themselves posing a threat to the old car hobby so much as policy aimed at destroying the "fossil fuel" industry. The notion that EVs are in some way more "environmentally friendly" is a shell game of robbing Peter to  pay Paul as far as I'm concerned. 
A Cadillac Motorcar is a Possession for which there is no Acceptable Substitute

35-709

#37
Quote from: Glen on February 04, 2021, 01:32:39 AM
The big question in my mind is how will the governments collect road tax on EVs? 
No doubt you will see a huge increase in your registration fees to make up for the loss of gasoline funded road taxes, with part going to the state and part to the federal government.  Worry not, they WILL come up with a way to replace the lost gasoline tax revenues.  You can also rest assured that there will be a tax on the electric power used to recharge your EV batteries at malls, restaurants, etc., etc., to pay for the increased need for electric power sources like more power plants and/or increasing the output abilities of current plants.  And I have every confidence that there will be a way to tax the power that you use at home (through the special charger plug-ins that you will have to install) to also recoup lost gasoline tax revenues.

Quote from: Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621 on February 04, 2021, 09:06:17 AM
I don't necessarily see EVs in themselves posing a threat to the old car hobby so much as policy aimed at destroying the "fossil fuel" industry. The notion that EVs are in some way more "environmentally friendly" is a shell game of robbing Peter to  pay Paul as far as I'm concerned. 
I am in 100% agreement with that!
1935 Cadillac Sedan resto-mod "Big Red"
1973 Cadillac Caribou - Sold - but still in the family
1950 Jaguar Mark V Saloon resto-mod - Sold
1942 Cadillac 6269 - Sold
1968 Pontiac Bonneville Convertible - Sold
1950 Packard 2dr. Club Sedan
1935 Glenn Pray - Auburn Boattail Speedster, Gen. 2

Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621

Quote from: 35-709 on February 04, 2021, 10:11:25 AM
No doubt you will see a huge increase in your registration fees to make up for the loss of gasoline funded road taxes, with part going to the state and part to the federal government.  Worry not, they WILL come up with a way to replace the lost gasoline tax revenues.  You can also rest assured that there will be a tax on the electric power used to recharge your EV batteries at malls, restaurants, etc., etc., to pay for the increased need for electric power sources like more power plants and/or increasing the output abilities of current plants.  And I have every confidence that there will be a way to tax the power that you use at home (through the special charger plug-ins that you will have to install) to also recoup lost gasoline tax revenues.

Yup!

A Cadillac Motorcar is a Possession for which there is no Acceptable Substitute

bcroe

I see the problem as generating enough energy, without pollution killing us all.  What
worked centuries ago, will not work with the world population of today or in the future. 

In cold January I used $250 worth of electricity to heat, cool, and electrify this place,
but I paid $0 for the energy.  But there was still a charge of $14, because that energy
had to be transported plus the taxes.  Zero carbon footprint, no emissions into the air. 
This has been happening here for 7 years by trading energy between my solar array
and the Nuke plant, called NET METERING.  Clean and very cheap, but never free. 

I am using the Nuke plant as an infinite capacity, 100% efficient, free cost and maintenance,
BATTERY.  That is because real batteries cannot do the job and make me truly independent. 
They will not in my lifetime, probably nobody elses lifetime, and likely never.  Renewables
are not sufficient to solve the problem by themselves.  But what I am doing, I believe can
be scaled up to a solution by changing over our uranium Nuke plant technology to
Thorium Nuke.  About the only down side (?) I have heard to this, is no bombs can be made
from thorium plants. 

Meanwhile it may be practical to build a lot of EVs, but some non electric types will always
be needed.  That can be tolerated, provided they do not pollute much.  Some fuels are very
clean (propane), just how that will play out remains to be seen.  Bruce Roe