https://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/newsroom/2017/11/23/car-guru-end-of-automotive-era/
Jeff,
I read the whole article on MSN news and was totally shocked! Times are changing whether we like it or not.(if you don't your probably old like me!)...walt...tulsa,ok
They've been talking about this stuff for years. Yes, it's happening slowly. But how are they going to get every car off the road, other than taking away the gas supply. The will be a revolution in the country if that happens. Would be easier to limit the amount of people entering the country to keep the population down. Why should everyone have to suffer because the country is overpopulated. It's one of the last guilty pleasures that I'm allowed to indulge in >:D........
Bobby.
Quote from: Bobby B on November 23, 2017, 11:19:38 AM
They've been talking about this stuff for years. Yes, it's happening slowly. But how are they going to get every car off the road, other than taking away the gas supply. The will be a revolution in the country if that happens. Would be easier to limit the amount of people entering the country to keep the population down. Why should everyone have to suffer because the country is overpopulated. It's one of the last guilty pleasures that I'm allowed to indulge in >:D........
Bobby.
[/quote) BOBBY! I agree with you 100%. EAM
Quite frightening. Glad I won't be around to see it. Those that grow up with it won't know any different. People must have spoken this way about horses :o
I have concluded that I am a visitor in the 21st century.
According to various 'predictions' in the 1950s and 60s we're all supposed to have flying cars and be living in a moon colony. Cars aren't just a way from A to B, they're freedom, individuality etc.
Yes, I remember reading Popular Science magazine when I was a kid in the
50's. Two common threads that were discussed every few months were the
future of transportation and space travel.
By the 70's, we were told, everyone would have their own individual flying
vehicle for the daily commute. Vacations to the moon and mars would be
everyday things! You have to realize that this was the dawn of the space age,
with Sputnik (Russian) and Explorer 1 (our satellite) that showed everything
was possible. Remember JFK's "man on the moon in the next decade" speech?
How about the Airforce's "Project Blue Book" (aliens from space, UFO sightings).
As for Bob Lutz, I saw him give speeches in his prime over 20 years ago. He
was quite a guy. Unfortunately, after reading his latest rant about the
"future" I do believe he's slowly getting senile.
To paraphrase Mark Twain, "talk of the demise of the automotive is greatly
exaggerated".
Mike
Glad I will be long dead before this happens.
But I have one question. If it does come to happen before I kark it, how am I going to tow and launch my boat, and retreive it when I want to. Suppose I will have to move to a Canal site, and have a private jetty and davits.
Bruce. >:D
Won't happen. Remember when Chrysler was on the verge of closing? Lee Iacocca proved to Congress that too many US jobs relied on the auto industry from Chrysler. Can you imagine if all car companies and their support network closed? Manufacturing, Dealers, service centers, auto insurance, body shops, gas stations, auto glass replacement industry, omg everywhere you look so many jobs are reliant on the car today.
But things are indeed changing right now. Look at Uber. It has virtually shut down the Taxi industry in many cities.
Cars have had adaptive cruise control systems for many years now These radar controlled systems are the precursor to automated driving. I often use my adaptive cruise control on the highway to pace myself with traffic. Set it for 75mph and get in the middle lane. I just let the car lock onto the car in front of me and it adjusts the speed accordingly. I just steer. It is very relaxing on the ride home from work. I can see how Cadillacs new "Super Cruise" fully automated driving will take that to the next level. Just one step away from driverless cars.
With the rise of traffic accidents and fatalities from distracted driving (cell phone use and texting) I can see people giving up driving for those Google driverless pod cars. Then they can talk and text all they want. I'll be happy to pilot my gas guzzling car around them in traffic.
If more and more people use electric pods to get around that means less demand for gas. Supplies will surge and the price will drop. But I think it will be a lonnng time before fully self driving cars monopolize the roads.
Just think about it. You own a self driving Google pod car. You don't even need to drive to the grocery store. You go online to shop and place your order. You then send your self driving Google pod car to the super market where the bag boy come out and loads the groceries bags into the pod car. The car drives itself home so you can unload it. Pretty scary eh?
The scary part for me is the transition period. And that is fast coming. With the automatic features like automatically keeping the car in the lane, automatic braking etc. The driver becomes more casual about his/her driving responsibility. They lose situational awareness. That’s when accidents happen.
On the other hand driverless cars have a long ways to go, I think. I would not want one that will not exceed the speed limit, around here everyone goes 10 MPH over. If I was in a car that did not exceed the speed limit I would be the most hated person. The cars need to keep up with traffic.
They also need a little more guts. I read of one self driving car that got stalled at the 4 way stop. It was programed to not move until all other cars came to a stop. None did, so it just sat there.
They just had a NEWS item regarding driverless vehicles, and for us here in Australia, they said that there would have to be a minimum of 700 Law changes, and that doesn't take into account the Insurance Industry problems involving them.
Plus, Until the prices come down to a respectable level, which will include the low-priced Used Car Market, it will take a very long time to come into being.
Bruce. >:D
I hear ya. I, for one, am thrilled to be the guardian of a wonderful, classic 1955 Cadillac, and plan to enjoy the hell out of it for as long as I live!!!
Our Government has announced that the sale of Deisel or petrol cars will be banned here 20 years from now, and all will be electric I suppose? That's crazy when there is no feasible alternative in place right now, plus successive governments will be able to amend and delay any such plans. I don't see it happening. Hundred years perhaps.
What beats the hell out of me is all these tree huggers advocating electric, but just where do they think the electric comes from? Mostly fossil fuel power stations in this country!! There needs to be a much better way of harvesting and storing electricity for it to work.
Our government seems to always be under the impression that this small island can make a difference to the global warming. What nonsense when a country the size of China produces more CO2 in a few days that we do in a whole year, and they have no intention of stopping. Sorry, my rant for the day.
You can rant Steve, you are correct.
The government is slowly restricting the freedom to move about. They are thinking of restricting cars in big cities now, then a ban eventually. For all those who poo poo it, you must have been around when automobiles came about. Never would we not use the horse and buggy, then went out and invested in a horse whip factory. I remember a business case study where a wealthy family in the 1890s set up a trust where all the funds were to be invested in the Pullman car company. We can guess how that turned out! Can you say would you like fries with that, or maybe paper or plastic?
The only thing I agree with is that will not happen soon, but I would bet you guys that in 50 years and maybe less we will be off the roads and only the ruling class will be able to move about freely.
Out of sight, out of mind makes people so gullible. These people think electricity is CLEAN...... It's a lack of education and critical thinking.
I think I read somewhere that you cannot commit suicide in a closed garage with the car running anymore. So how clean is that!
I guess Hollywood will need a new plot line to commit suicide... on second thought they are doing a good job of doing that to themselves lately with all the scandals.
The world will continue to evolve and there is little we can do but follow Mickey's comments to drive and enjoy our cars. It's a cold but sunny day in Ohio this morning and I'm driving my 41 to the office. When we can no longer do this I'll reflect on the ditty written long ago by some poor guy dealing with war rationing:
When I die please bury me,
Neath a ton of sugar by a rubber tree.
Lay me to rest in my auto machine,
And water my grave with gasoline.
Jim Miller
Guys/girls,
When I briefed my wife (approaching 70yrs old) on the "end of the automotive era article" article she commented that "I thought that "the Jetsons" were supposed to lead us to be in flying cars by now". The next mourning I saw a news article that said there are 19 different driverless flying car companies working on them at this moment!.....walt....tulsa,ok
Quote from: MickeyCaddy on November 24, 2017, 04:55:53 AM
I hear ya. I, for one, am thrilled to be the guardian of a wonderful, classic 1955 Cadillac, and plan to enjoy the hell out of it for as long as I live!!!
I'm taking my '53 with me when I go. Gotta figure how to get a trailer hitch on it though, a few other goodies I'd hate to part with too.
Quote from: MeToo on November 23, 2017, 04:35:27 PM
According to various 'predictions' in the 1950s and 60s we're all supposed to have flying cars and be living in a moon colony. Cars aren't just a way from A to B, they're freedom, individuality etc.
Agree. So-called industry professionals/experts (current or retired) have been predicting all sorts of stuff over the many many decades, many of which don't actually come true or at least not to the degree as predicted.
Quote from: Glen on November 24, 2017, 02:42:43 AM
The scary part for me is the transition period. And that is fast coming. With the automatic features like automatically keeping the car in the lane, automatic braking etc. The driver becomes more casual about his/her driving responsibility. They lose situational awareness. That’s when accidents happen.
It happened to me! I am so used to my adaptive cruise control slowing my car for me when I come up behind a slower car that I get complacent. Recently I was driving a different car with regular old fashioned cruise control set and I found myself overtaking a slower car and suddenly realizing I had to take control and hit the brakes!
The one feature I still don't rely on 100% is the back up camera. I still find myself looking back over my shoulder most of the time. But I suppose if you are a younger person whose cars have always had it they will become reliant on it.
Points well made. If I follow the money this is what I find:
As others have pointed out the old car business, aftermarket parts business (even for the pedestrian Fords and Chevys driven daily) SEMA, and all the other related automotive businesses make up $100's of billions of dollars of the economy world wide. This autonomous car thing is not going to be something that happens on a large scale for many many years. Plus I'm quite sure provisions will be in place for collector cars and specialty cars to remain on the road.
Legally it's a nightmare. When the electronics fail, and they will, and the result is an accident, who is picking up the tab? Can't be the driver. He wasn't driving. Manufactures liability is at maximum exposure. The potential to hurt their profits is huge.
And then there's the billion dollar petrol industry. enough said.
To add one security expert brought up the point of hacking. With the recent personal information hack of Equifax (over 150 million citizens affected) and the now proven foreign county hacking regarding the last election, a sophisticated hack attempt could cause mass chaos on the roads of America when autonomous cars are the norm.
My concerns about the new automatic braking, lane correction, and other features designed to compensate for the distracted driver only foster a more irresponsible attitude by drivers behind the wheel. All of these features sends the message that it's okay you as the driver is not really paying attention. I think that's a very bad ideology and also a very slippery slope considering fully autonomous cars are still many years away (many, many yeras, away)
The future always brings changes. But I'm not holding my breath on the flying cars and self driving ones. I have more concerns today, right now, with drivers that have little concern for the responsibility of piloting their vehicle and relying on technology to take over when they aren't paying attention--- When they should be. Responsibility behind the wheel is simply eroded with these "advancements"
Here's a good question: How many of us here have had an accident recently in an "old fashion" car that requires our attention to drive it safely and responsibly. For me it's been over 30 years.
Quote from: D.Smith on November 24, 2017, 09:01:31 AM
The one feature I still don't rely on 100% is the back up camera. I still find myself looking back over my shoulder most of the time. But I suppose if you are a younger person whose cars have always had it they will become reliant on it.
With the shape of the modern cars, Back-up Cameras are getting to be a must, simply because the backs are so high, and the seats have so many head restraints, that it is virtually impossible to see what is behind.
Last year I rented a Toyota Rav 4, and I found myself totally relying on the camera for reversing and parking. Couldn't see a damned thing out the rear vision mirror of what I wanted to see, and no amount of twisting the neck did much better.
In my '60 CDV, and my Eldo, especially with the roof down, I could see everything, save for what was initially below the rear bumper bar.
Bruce. >:D
PS. I was backing a trailer with my mates' Rav 4, and the reversing sensors were constantly going off, indicating I was too close to what I was reversing into. Then DUH, It was the trailer that was setting it off. These vehicles aren't smart enough to realise that when the trailer lights are connected, there is an obstacle in the way of the sensors, and need to be disabled. The Camera was a great assist though.
Hello all,
Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, political scientist Francis Fukuyama authored "The End of History". Needless to say, history did not end, liberal democracy has not triumphed, and Russia is still a potential problem for the U.S. and the West. While I have enjoyed reading some of Fukuyama's works, the point is that predictions don't always come true, and over-reaching predictions seldom so.
I recalled that Bob Lutz - a mere eight months ago - derided the electric car as economically futile (http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-lutz-qa-20170330-story.html). I don't think economic conditions have changed so drastically in eight months as to portend the end of the automobile era. I can imagine a future for electric cars, but one that includes a major problem for auto manufacturers.
I think it is possible, that in a generation or two, tens of millions of people will no longer want to own or lease a car when they can summon one on demand from a smart phone application. So the number of newly manufactured cars needed to satisfy demand will decline steadily - not to the point of the end of the automotive era, but to the point of the end of the auto manufacturers as we know them.
Respectfully submitted,
Christopher Winter
Coming into this thread was like deja vu. We're discussing this very topic on Corvetteforum as well, and it's going just about the same there as here.
As for me, I don't think the autonomous vehicles are taking over any time soon, but electric is definitely here to stay. They just put in a sizable Tesla charging area at the WaWa I gas my company truck at, in Woodbridge NJ.
So, let me see if I understand this.......the amateur futurists claim that in a few years, we'll pull out our cell phones and call for a Public Self Driving Transportation Module to show up and do our bidding. We all know how the Public takes care of items they either share or don't own. I can imaging calling for one of these Public modules to take me out to a fine restaurant. It pulls up, I open the door, and find.......half eaten pizza crusts, mud caked into the carpet, and gooey stains on the back seat. Doubt me?.......Two words........Public Restroom.
You are so right. Perhaps all the redundant car workers can be employed cleaning them out every trip ;D
Quote from: Steve Passmore on November 24, 2017, 05:08:56 AM
Our Government has announced that the sale of Deisel or petrol cars will be banned here 20 years from now, and all will be electric I suppose? That's crazy when there is no feasible alternative in place right now, plus successive governments will be able to amend and delay any such plans. I don't see it happening. Hundred years perhaps.
What beats the hell out of me is all these tree huggers advocating electric, but just where do they think the electric comes from? Mostly fossil fuel power stations in this country!! There needs to be a much better way of harvesting and storing electricity for it to work.
Our government seems to always be under the impression that this small island can make a difference to the global warming. What nonsense when a country the size of China produces more CO2 in a few days that we do in a whole year, and they have no intention of stopping. Sorry, my rant for the day.
Hey Steve....
Your electric future in the UK is in that nuclear stuff we had everyone tell us was a no-no forty years ago. Transformation! Most of what you have coming in the way of nuclear power isn't UK owned either.....
Your so right John. The latest one being built is partly 'frog' owned. Governments are still debating how the UK leaving Europe will affect that as it won't be finished for years. Its still only a small proportion of the total requirement though.
Quote from: Steve Passmore on November 26, 2017, 03:38:19 AM
Your so right John. The latest one being built is partly 'frog' owned. Governments are still debating how the UK leaving Europe will affect that as it won't be finished for years. Its still only a small proportion of the total requirement though.
Wouldn't like to have the job of negotiating your "out"from the EU under these circumstances:
"There is a 2000 MW high-voltage DC connection with France and a 1000 MW one with the Netherlands; also a 1000 MW one with Belgium is under construction for 2018, and the 1400 MW Northconnect link over 750 km between Scotland and Norway will begin construction in 2019 for 2022 commissioning, partly funded by the EU. A further 2000 MW connection to Normandy was approved in September 2016 to enable the import of French nuclear power from 2022. In 2015 the France link ran at 81% capacity and the Netherlands one at 91%."
So, to bring it back to Cadillac and LaSalle relationship, how many Cadillacs are using this power at the moment?
Any,?
Bruce. >:D
Quote from: gkhashem on November 24, 2017, 06:29:12 AM
I think I read somewhere that you cannot commit suicide in a closed garage with the car running anymore. So how clean is that!
I guess Hollywood will need a new plot line to commit suicide... on second thought they are doing a good job of doing that to themselves lately with all the scandals.
No problem, people will just start electrocuting themselves.
Hey Geoff,
Although you probably will not get Cancer, lung disease or skin rashes, there is still enough Carbon Mon Oxide in the exhaust to finish the job,
Greg Surfas
I'm thinking, if the damn things are running windows based software, I will be driving a car for the foreseeable future.
Quote from: "Cadillac Kid" Greg Surfas 15364 on November 28, 2017, 02:45:03 PM
Hey Geoff,
Although you probably will not get Cancer, lung disease or skin rashes, there is still enough Carbon Mon Oxide in the exhaust to finish the job,
Greg Surfas
Hi Greg,
;D I was thinking of all-electric cars with no internal combustion engine.
I got a civil service job in 1984. I said to myself, self, "What would it be like in 20 years" Flying cars, jet packs etc... Nothing had changed in those 20 years. If these cars do come about, like everyone says, it will be a long time before it happens.
I didn't read the article but I know what the predictions are. What I will say is I will give up driving when they pry my the keys out of my cold dead hands lol.
Quote from: Bobby B on November 23, 2017, 11:19:38 AM
They've been talking about this stuff for years. Yes, it's happening slowly. But how are they going to get every car off the road, other than taking away the gas supply. The will be a revolution in the country if that happens. Would be easier to limit the amount of people entering the country to keep the population down. Why should everyone have to suffer because the country is overpopulated. It's one of the last guilty pleasures that I'm allowed to indulge in >:D........
Bobby.
Boy, is that ever the truth, Bobby!!!
I was in a Sedan company in Germany starting in 1960. I found that moist of the guys from big cities like New York had no experience in driving cars and not really caring about cars, but those of us in rural areas and West coast had more passion about them.
That article is from some bicycle enthusiasts website. To me its nothing more than eco mentalist wishful thinking.