Numlock News: April 23, 2019
Apr 23 Public post
By Walt Hickey
"
Drivers
The share of 16-year-olds who get their drivers license is down 20.2 percentage points between 1983 and 2017, dropping from 46 percent in the ‘80s to 26 percent in 2017. Eventually kids realized that if they want to get into bars they will inexplicably need to certify with the state that they can drive, but still only 80 percent of 20- to 24-year-olds in 2017 were licensed drivers, down from 92 percent in 1983. Part of it is that cars are expensive, gas is expensive, even driver’s ed costs a few hundred dollars these days.
Probably because the youngsters want to go out and drink themselves stupid, and therefore are catching taxis.
Modern compact living (Units and condos etc.) doesn't go well with car ownership, and with the bland look of new cars, there is no reason to splash out for buying costly cars.
Bruce. >:D
Some previously posted articles on the subject of young people and cars:
"Actually, we were all wrong â€" millennials love cars" --
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-love-cars-2016-11
"Who says they don't like cars? Millennials are the fastest growing segment of car buyers, according to experts" --
http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/millennials-are-fastest-growing-segment-of-car-buyers-article-1.2983590
"Don't Believe the Hype! Cars Matter to Millennials" --
https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/car/dont-believe-the-hype-cars-matter-to-millennials
"Ninety-Two Percent of Gen Z Teens Own or Plan to Own A Vehicle" --
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/ninety-two-percent-gen-z-teens-own-plan-own-vehicle-according-study
"Study: Millennials Like Cars More Than Social Media" --
https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/study-millennials-cars-more-social-media-234471
“TC insurance firm's survey finds millennials like cars after all†--
https://www.techcentury.com/2018/06/27/tc-insurance-firms-survey-finds-millennials-like-cars-after-all
"Millennials like buying cars after all" --
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/millennials-like-buying-cars-after-all.html
"Millennials collecting cars with new classics ranging from Datsuns to DeLoreans" --
https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/sc-autotips-0817-millennials-collecting-cars-20170816-story.html
"The New Majority: Millennials and Gen Xers Dominate Classic Car Market" --
https://thenewswheel.com/the-new-majority-millennials-and-gen-xers-dominate-classic-car-market/
"Millennials and Gen X's interest in classic cars increasing" --
https://www.autoclassics.com/posts/news/millennials-growing-in-classic-car-market
Well all three of my children had their learner's permits the day of or after their 15.5 year birthday and were licensed the day it was legal form an age perspective in Virginia (16 years, 3 months). If it is bad that children are not getting licensed at age 16 like they should, blame the parents. Unless the children are legally separated from their parents at age 16 they have to comply. My kids were a little anxious and would like to have put it off, but I would have none of it, was not going to be their driver any longer than necessary.
My son's girlfriend at age 18 did not have her license primarily because of her parents inattention/lazy. I taught her to drive and she got it.
When we reflect how the younger generation is not doing what the older (us) generation wants them to do, we have no one to blame but ourselves, certainly not the children we raised.
My youngest daughter was in traffic yesterday as a passenger and spotted a 1970 Monte Carlo and sent me a text with a picture of it, so she gets it.
Many of my students don't have their licenses because their families can not afford the insurance.
Jim
Jim,
What is wrong with the kid working to pay for the insurance as did I and most of my contemporaries when we were teenagers? Indeed I had to pay a "high risk" rate because of my father who had a long history of driving violations and was at that time in prison.
Bob
Quote from: quadfins on April 23, 2019, 11:26:39 AM
Many of my students don't have their licenses because their families can not afford the insurance.
One must also consider the increasing numbers of young people attending college as well as how those expenses have notably increased over time. Less than 50% of new high school graduates in 1980 were enrolled in college compared to about 70% today. More and more young people (and/or their parents) having to deal with higher education costs may also force some to have to delay car ownership and/or getting a license even though the interest and desire is there.
Quote from: Big Apple Caddy on April 23, 2019, 03:29:20 PM
One must also consider the increasing numbers of young people attending college as well as how those expenses have notably increased over time. Less than 50% of new high school graduates in 1980 were enrolled in college compared to about 70% today. More and more young people (and/or their parents) having to deal with higher education costs may also force some to have to delay car ownership and/or getting a license even though the interest and desire is there.
Up in this neck of the woods, the high concentration of students pursuing degrees has created a shortage of skilled tradespeople. I could hire 4-5 skilled glaziers tomorrow and keep them permanently employed. They just don't exist anymore.
The ticket to doing well these days (at least here) is to pursue a trade through a community college, spend about $7500 and 1-2 years worth of your time to learn a trade, emerge debt free if you're smart, and earn more money fresh out of a community college than a person with a degree in an entry level position.
But . . . that means one would have to WORK! Argh. Egad. How dare someone would suggest that to today's youngins.
Nope. One of my employees passed away last November. Prostate cancer that quickly spread. His lady day of work was September 9th. Even battling cancer at 67, he could work circles around any of the 20-somethings I'd hired.
Quote from: z3skybolt on April 23, 2019, 12:57:51 PM
Jim,
What is wrong with the kid working to pay for the insurance as did I and most of my contemporaries when we were teenagers? Indeed I had to pay a "high risk" rate because of my father who had a long history of driving violations and was at that time in prison.
Bob
Nothing is wrong with it. And many do. It is not my place to tell them what to do, or how to prioritize their budgets.
I am simply stating a fact, as relayed to me by them.
Others do not, or have other preferences to spend their dollars on.
Insurance for my honor student daughter is well over a thousand dollars a year. Many families here see that as an extravagance.
Jim
My 18yo son has no desire to drive, no interest in his 99 Mustang convertible at all. Prefers to be dropped and either his GF or friends drive and he gladly forks over gas money.
Good for me, no insurance claims.
Regards,
Matt
The cost of owning a vehicle and such is much more expensive today than ever. Also one has to consider the location of where one lives in the country.
As much as our government out here in CA tries to push us out of our cars and into public transit, you simply cannot get around in places like L.A. San Diego and Orange County without having a car to drive, these metros are just way too spread out to take a bus, the train or the trolley.
The car is seen as a appliance more so than ever before and kids now just don’t have the desire to own a vehicle like they did in the past.
Plus with many cities urbanizing at a rapid rate, more young people are moving back into the urban core so that can also be why. Again, it all depends on the size and location of the city that could be a factor.
With Uber and Lyft having become so popular, this I am sure has a lot to do with it too.
Quote from: quadfins on April 23, 2019, 11:26:39 AM
Many of my students don't have their licenses because their families can not afford the insurance.
Jim
That was my parent’s excuse. The results were that I had to learn how to drive from my Navy buddy’s. The catch was I had to buy the beer. What could go wrong with that plan?
Quote from: Dan LeBlanc on April 23, 2019, 04:02:10 PM
But . . . that means one would have to WORK! Argh. Egad. How dare someone would suggest that to today's youngins.
An element of every older generation seems to feel that way about the next/young generation. Kids today don't want to work, feel entitled, lack work ethic, want everything for nothing, etc are views that have been expressed for ages! This was being said about my generation when I was young, about my parents' generation when they were young, about my grandparents' generation when they were young, and so on.
Of course, young people have also long complained about the older generations being too rigid/set in their ways, unwilling to embrace new technologies, new ways of thinking or doing things, new ideas, change, etc.
Ahh, the generation gap continues to be alive and well. ;D
Quote from: 64CaddieLacky on April 24, 2019, 12:08:43 AM
The cost of owning a vehicle and such is much more expensive today than ever.
What are you basing this on? While the average cost may be at or near highest in
current dollars, government data/research appears to show that the average inflation adjusted cost of car ownership (fuel, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc) is actually lower today than most years dating back to that earliest data from 1975.
Inflation adjusted average ownership/operating cost per mile, based on 15k miles/year:
2018 â€" 60.1 cents
2008 â€" 64.4 cents
1998 â€" 72.3 cents
1975 â€" 69.5 cents
I can believe the costs associated with car ownership is significantly higher in certain geographic locales within the US.
I think I Art hit it on the head. With all the social media stuff out there kids can be in the same room with their friends while being on the other side if the country. My son plays some game wearing a headset and a live pix of his friends doing the same thing. He never had an interest in a license until we got the 55 and he wanted to take it to prom. Now he drives all over the place (mostly in his daily driver if course) and can't imagine not having a car. He works and pays his own insurance and gas on his daily. We cover the 55.
I agree with Art, the video world teenagers can so inexpensively access has replaced some of thrill of driving to enjoy the world. However, video does not completely replace driving, and for most is essential.
OK, the good thing about video with teenagers is that it is easy to mold them. If they do not work a job or whatever else is good for them but they do not want to do, just take the video away, or make it a reward after they cut the lawn, finish home work or whatever. It would be better if we did not trash young people for lack of work ethic, and etc. because the people writing on this forum in their 50's or so raised them and it reflects onto the authors. I have not suffered any problems with young people not working hard, as it is no trouble for me to motivate them amicably. Now on the subject of them spouting off about political opinions of which is based upon no facts - that is another matter.
My kids all enjoy my Cadillacs.
Quote from: Scot Minesinger on April 24, 2019, 12:03:37 PM
. Now on the subject of them spouting off about political opinions of which is based upon no facts - that is another matter.
This happens with ALL generations.
And a large proportion of the students at my school DO appreciate old cars, especially when they actually SEE them.
So, I guess the lesson for us is to drive these cars, get them out and seen, and be open and willing to spend the time to chat and share.
Jim
Jim
How does it go again . . .
"If you're 20 and not a liberal, you don't have a heart. If you're 30 and not a conservative, you don't have a brain."
Timeless.
Also, I apparently never had a heart.
Quote from: Big Apple Caddy on April 24, 2019, 08:34:45 AM
What are you basing this on? While the average cost may be at or near highest in current dollars, government data/research appears to show that the average inflation adjusted cost of car ownership (fuel, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc) is actually lower today than most years dating back to that earliest data from 1975.
Inflation adjusted average ownership/operating cost per mile, based on 15k miles/year:
2018 â€" 60.1 cents
2008 â€" 64.4 cents
1998 â€" 72.3 cents
1975 â€" 69.5 cents
The overall cost of living on the coast for one thing hinders young
people ability to afford to own a car. You’re not adding in the overall expenses in terms of housing like rent, a mortgage, taxes, income, food cost, car insurance, and other factors which all reduces ones ability to own a vehicle.
Sure maybe living in Kentucky it’s not an issue, but here? It’s a struggle for sure even for well off millennials it’s still hard.
This should be an eye opener for all.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/story/2019-04-24/san-diego-popular-with-millennials-not-so-much-study-shows
Only 2 percent of millennials that move here to my city can afford to buy a house, that’s insane to me!
Quote from: 64CaddieLacky on April 25, 2019, 03:14:03 PM
The overall cost of living on the coast for one thing hinders young
people ability to afford to own a car. You’re not adding in the overall expenses in terms of housing like rent, a mortgage, taxes, income, food cost, car insurance, and other factors which all reduces ones ability to own a vehicle.
Sure maybe living in Kentucky it’s not an issue, but here? It’s a struggle for sure even for well off millennials it’s still hard.
This should be an eye opener for all.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/story/2019-04-24/san-diego-popular-with-millennials-not-so-much-study-shows
Only 2 percent of millennials that move here to my city can afford to buy a house, that’s insane to me!
None of that changes the fact that the inflation adjusted cost of car ownership is less expensive now than it has ever been.
The relative high cost of living within certain locales has no bearing on this.
Quote from: Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621 on April 25, 2019, 03:55:09 PM
None of that changes the fact that the inflation adjusted cost of car ownership is less expensive now than it has ever been.
The relative high cost of living within certain locales has no bearing on this.
But I think you have to add in those factors because it goes hand in hand with car ownership. It was much easier for a blue collar wage earner to own a house back in the 50’s and 60’s even in expensive states like CA and NY. Just having conversations with my parents regarding this topic confirms it.
Sure other cost for things have come down, but for the most part everything has become more expensive and wage growth in our nation has been stagnant for many years, yet new vehicle prices keep skyrocketing. We also live in “charge for everything†society, and easy financing is available so it may look like it’s easier for people to obtain expensive items such as a new vehicle, but it has also put many Americans is massive debt which is getting worse.
If one doesn’t factor in housing cost, you’re fooling yourself. If home and vehicle prices are rising hypothetical speaking, 6-8% a year or more, and your job is only giving a 1-2% raise a year how are you personally ever able to keep up and be able to afford new car prices and a home? Unless you’re well off and money is no factor, high inflation doesn’t affect you. It seems like the middle class is getting squeezed hard, and many young people today have to rely on help from others just to make ends meet. My parents and grandparents generation had it made, even they tell me, they were fortunate to grow up in a time where everything for the most part was within reach for the majority of society, not the few like it is now.
Thank you Art for your personal insights. Your narrative helps to refocus those influences and emotional impulses that cause us to engage in the car "hobby" in a balanced and healthy way. Alas, I, for one, can be overwhelmed by emotional impulses that, at times, create a level of discomfort because I was spending money on "an old car" rather than a vintage car that was perceived by others as accruing in value. You're correct--- young individuals have and many more, as they age, will find satisfaction in the car hobby-- Your advice is both comforting and wise. Thank you, James
Quote from: 64CaddieLacky on April 25, 2019, 03:14:03 PM
The overall cost of living on the coast for one thing hinders young people ability to afford to own a car. You’re not adding in the overall expenses in terms of housing like rent, a mortgage, taxes, income, food cost, car insurance, and other factors which all reduces ones ability to own a vehicle.
Sure maybe living in Kentucky it’s not an issue, but here? It’s a struggle for sure even for well off millennials it’s still hard.
Your comment that I had specifically replied to was implying that the cost of car ownership was the highest its ever been and I was pointing out that is simply not the case, at least not after adjusting for inflation. While the costs of some things may have risen and more and more young people (and/or their parents) are spending money on things like college tuition, the average inflation adjusted operating/ownership costs of automobiles is actually down. Down approximately 17% in constant dollars between 1998 and 2018, for example.
On cost of ownership, such a used Cadillac, at 0.60 cents per mile, where much of that is depreciation that is not actually paid out (until car is sold), teenagers can afford it:
Work 20 hours a week at minimum wage, that is $150 gross, or $7,500 per year. Net is going to be about $6,000, so let's say about $500 per month. If they spent half their paycheck on a car, that allows for 250/0.6 = about 410 miles per month, 5,000 per year. The problem with this calculation is generally they are driving older cars that require large repair bills and insurance payments may not be able to spread evenly over 12 months.
I paid for all my children's car expenses from age 16 all through college (except gas during college years - not paying for road trips), and then they left the nest and were on their own. This way they enjoyed the experience and education of owning a car.
Quote from: 64CaddieLacky on April 26, 2019, 03:55:13 AM
But I think you have to add in those factors because it goes hand in hand with car ownership. It was much easier for a blue collar wage earner to own a house back in the 50’s and 60’s even in expensive states like CA and NY. Just having conversations with my parents regarding this topic confirms it.
Sure other cost for things have come down, but for the most part everything has become more expensive and wage growth in our nation has been stagnant for many years, yet new vehicle prices keep skyrocketing. We also live in “charge for everything†society, and easy financing is available so it may look like it’s easier for people to obtain expensive items such as a new vehicle, but it has also put many Americans is massive debt which is getting worse.
If one doesn’t factor in housing cost, you’re fooling yourself. If home and vehicle prices are rising hypothetical speaking, 6-8% a year or more, and your job is only giving a 1-2% raise a year how are you personally ever able to keep up and be able to afford new car prices and a home? Unless you’re well off and money is no factor, high inflation doesn’t affect you. It seems like the middle class is getting squeezed hard, and many young people today have to rely on help from others just to make ends meet. My parents and grandparents generation had it made, even they tell me, they were fortunate to grow up in a time where everything for the most part was within reach for the majority of society, not the few like it is now.
Maybe where you are real estate values are rising apace, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a yardstick nationwide.
The average American lives beyond his means; the national savings rate in the United States is abysmal and this phenomenon exists at all income levels. I have little tolerance for those who complain incessantly about the predicament they find themselves due to their own poor choices and lack financial irresponsibility.
I have a friend who lives on his own and never having made over $20K, who in his early 30s managed to buy a near mint 42,000 mile 1999 Corvette for $15K cash while still having another daily driver. He saves like a madman, never bought a new car,
never bought anything on credit while still maintaining a relatively comfortable lifestyle - while still having a decent chuck of money in the bank. A fancy vacation a year and a new car payment would mean bankruptcy for him.
I also daresay the average WWII generation had very different financial habits the average 20 - 30 something of today. And if the cost of living is too high in a given area to make ends meet, I guess the answer is to move.
As far as I'm concerned, the argument of how unaffordable car ownership is for the average working individual is nonsense.
Quote from: Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621 on April 26, 2019, 09:29:26 AM
Maybe where you are real estate values are rising apace, but that is not necessarily mean it's a yardstick nationwide.
The average American lives beyond his means; the national savings rate in the United States is abysmal and this phenomenon exists at all income levels. I have little tolerance for those who complain incessantly about the predicament they find themselves due to their own poor choices and financial irresponsibility.
I have a friend who lives on his own and never having made over $20K, who in his early 30s managed to buy a near mint 42,000 mile 1999 Corvette for $15K cash while still having another daily driver. He saves like a madman, never bought a new car, never bought anything on credit while still maintaining a relatively comfortable existence - while still having a decent chuck of money in the bank. A fancy vacation a year and a new car payment would mean bankruptcy for him.
I also daresay the average WWII generation had very different financial habits the the average 20 - 30 something of today. And the cost of living is too high in a given area to make ends meet, I guess the answer is to move.
As far as I'm concerned, the argument of how unaffordable car ownership is for the average working individual is nonsense.
My point is, car ownership is prohibitively more expensive on the coasts than the rest of the country.
No kids, but all of my brothers and sisters and my wife's brothers and sisters have driver's licenses.
Only half of our nieces and nephews have DLs...
Again, whether a 16 year earns a driver's license or not is up to the parents primarily. It is not really a choice for the 16 year olds. If parents let 16 year olds choose everything, then they might suffer unfortunate results. Driving is costly, but earning a DL only (not driving theri own car) is not too expensive. Not saying bad parents allow kids to not get DL's as circumstances may vary, but parents are the primary influence in this subject.
I do not know why people think it is up to a 16 year old to make super important parenting decisions. All three of my children wanted to attend out of State colleges for no good reason, and I said no. Then they went to great State schools for half the cost (which I paid for), did well, and got jobs - good parenting.