All Electric by 2035 and the collector car hobby.

[mgrab]

I cannot think of a better car for an EV conversion than a classic land yacht. The point of those cars is to be smooth, quiet, and effortless and what better way than a virtually silent drivetrain with ample torque and no gears to shift.

Recently, I read an article where Jay Leno mentioned he can't wait to convert his cars.  The Duesenbergs especially since he's tired of shifting them and longs for the day he can read a book behind a wheel - not.

I'll never do that.. someone else can, not me.  If the 2035 thing becomes real I'll get in line to make sure I buy the last ICE's off the line that gives ~10 years life beyond that ie 24 years before you have to go to a municipal airfield etc for fuel... I'll do that and build a shed on my property to store for driving them locally for pleasure.  The biggest challenge will be dealing with the backlash from people who think your ending the planet in 2050 by driving it because the Mayan calendar 2.0 or something says it will.

[TJ Hopland]

Here is a youtube video that I think did a really good job of explaining were things are now and what the current 'problem' is with ev adoption. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLcqJ2DclEg

the channel is wendover productions and the title is the electric vehicle charging problem for those that don't like clicking on links.

Quick summary for those that don't want to watch is that the Americans were surveyed and said the issues were cost, range, and charge time.   Cost is basically been solved,  range has also been solved.  Remaining issue is charge time but the charge time isn't a technical issue its lack of infrastructure that is further being hindered by lack of a standard or in other words a 'format war'.   

I really think the video is worth a watch because it touches on several aspects and gives some numbers and examples.   I think it would be an interesting watch for those that know barely anything about EV's.   I knew a lot of the bits but never saw them in one place in a nice package like this.   

[MaR]

Here is a youtube video that I think did a really good job of explaining were things are now and what the current 'problem' is with ev adoption. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLcqJ2DclEg

the channel is wendover productions and the title is the electric vehicle charging problem for those that don't like clicking on links.

Quick summary for those that don't want to watch is that the Americans were surveyed and said the issues were cost, range, and charge time.   Cost is basically been solved,  range has also been solved.  Remaining issue is charge time but the charge time isn't a technical issue its lack of infrastructure that is further being hindered by lack of a standard or in other words a 'format war'.   

I really think the video is worth a watch because it touches on several aspects and gives some numbers and examples.   I think it would be an interesting watch for those that know barely anything about EV's.   I knew a lot of the bits but never saw them in one place in a nice package like this.

The biggest issue with "charge time" is that people are still thinking like you have to go somewhere to get electricity. 99% of the time, I do my charging either at work or at home when I'm not using the car.

[Anderson]

Here is a youtube video that I think did a really good job of explaining were things are now and what the current 'problem' is with ev adoption. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLcqJ2DclEg

the channel is wendover productions and the title is the electric vehicle charging problem for those that don't like clicking on links.

Quick summary for those that don't want to watch is that the Americans were surveyed and said the issues were cost, range, and charge time.   Cost is basically been solved,  range has also been solved.  Remaining issue is charge time but the charge time isn't a technical issue its lack of infrastructure that is further being hindered by lack of a standard or in other words a 'format war'.   

I really think the video is worth a watch because it touches on several aspects and gives some numbers and examples.   I think it would be an interesting watch for those that know barely anything about EV's.   I knew a lot of the bits but never saw them in one place in a nice package like this.

Range hasn't /quite/ been solved (at least for a reasonable cost), but we're getting there.  Give it a vehicle generation and we can probably talk.  Cost is working its way through, but there are certain if/then variables at play (see range).

Charge time is sort-of a technical problem in the sense that cramming a fast charge into a car still takes half an hour or so.  The Superchargers and their ilk help to a certain extent.

What's probably going to have to happen, frankly, is that either you're going to need a LOT more chargers (and a bit more speed on the rate of charge) alongside longer ranges (again, 1-2 more generations) alongside an enforced cease-fire in the format war (basically, you need adapters that go "both ways", Musk has to open up the Supercharger network, and we might ideally have a flat bar on "proprietary" setups going forward without providing adapters [something like the EU requirement to distribute USB-compatible charging adapters with Apple devices]).

[MaR]

Range hasn't /quite/ been solved (at least for a reasonable cost), but we're getting there.  Give it a vehicle generation and we can probably talk.  Cost is working its way through, but there are certain if/then variables at play (see range).

Charge time is sort-of a technical problem in the sense that cramming a fast charge into a car still takes half an hour or so.  The Superchargers and their ilk help to a certain extent.

What's probably going to have to happen, frankly, is that either you're going to need a LOT more chargers (and a bit more speed on the rate of charge) alongside longer ranges (again, 1-2 more generations) alongside an enforced cease-fire in the format war (basically, you need adapters that go "both ways", Musk has to open up the Supercharger network, and we might ideally have a flat bar on "proprietary" setups going forward without providing adapters [something like the EU requirement to distribute USB-compatible charging adapters with Apple devices]).

Having driven around 200,000 miles on various manufactures EVs, I can tell you that public fast charging is now where near as important as many people think. Musk as offered access to the Supercharger network for many years now just as long as whoever takes advantage of it also helps grow the network. So far, no other company has taken him up on the offer. Personally, I don't think that a government mandate is something that is needed. Something like that stifles innovation and what you end up with is engineering by committee. That is precisely why Tesla when with their own plug design over the Chademo or the CCS plugs.

[TJ Hopland]

What was the deal in the USA with phone chargers?   That was never a government mandate was it?    That must have been some sort of standards group?   Everyone except Apple went with micro usb?    Or is that sort of where we are now with Tesla being the Apple that isn't even close to the rest?    The Tesla super charger is basically a DC fast charger isn't it?   So technically making that work with other cars is really just a connector and software issue? 

I remember the phone thing because even Blacberry that was using mini usb had to switch,  I assumed that was part of the deal.   None of the other phone companies wanted to make it look they were switching to the blackberry connector so they invented or at least adopted the micro. 

It does seem like the industry and consumers would benefit from some sort of non government standards group.  Not being government they could likely be more dynamic when needed than government could be.   They could deal with things like the chargers as well as work with governments on safety related issues and things like training first responders.   They could also work with schools about education related to service.   

[MaR]

What was the deal in the USA with phone chargers?   That was never a government mandate was it?    That must have been some sort of standards group?   Everyone except Apple went with micro usb?    Or is that sort of where we are now with Tesla being the Apple that isn't even close to the rest?    The Tesla super charger is basically a DC fast charger isn't it?   So technically making that work with other cars is really just a connector and software issue? 

I remember the phone thing because even Blacberry that was using mini usb had to switch,  I assumed that was part of the deal.   None of the other phone companies wanted to make it look they were switching to the blackberry connector so they invented or at least adopted the micro. 

It does seem like the industry and consumers would benefit from some sort of non government standards group.  Not being government they could likely be more dynamic when needed than government could be.   They could deal with things like the chargers as well as work with governments on safety related issues and things like training first responders.   They could also work with schools about education related to service.   

The whole back story on the Tesla connector goes like this: Back in 2010, before the Model S came out, Tesla was one of the auto makers that was on the SAE/ISO committee to design the DC fast charging plug. They (SAE/ISO/JIS) had already designed the J-1772 plug which is used for AC 120/240 volt charging. The proposed SAE/ISO plug would eventually be the CCS plug which takes the existing J-1772 plug and slaps to big conductors on the bottom. The resulting plug it quite large and because most of the weight is toward the bottom, it has a tendency to droop when it's plugged in which can disconnect the safety pin connection in the plug and shut it down. Teslas suggestion was to modify the J-1772 standard to be robust enough for AC and DC charging without extra pins. Nobody else wanted to change the standard so Tesla went out on their own and designed their own plug which is the same for all types of charging regardless of power draw. Having used every type of DC fast charging plug (CCS, chademo, and Tesla) the Tesla plug is by far the superior design from a functionality and ease of use point of view. In North America, the Tesla plug is so popular that EVgo (a nationwide network of DC fast charging locations) just announced that they are adding the Tesla plug to 650 of their DC fast charging locations. The bottom line is that if you were to just pick a standard right now, the Tesla plug would make the most sense simply because it's the most common socket on cars right now.

[TJ Hopland]

I did wonder how clunky some of those plugs are and if there were sag issues.   Sounds like there is.   

They are all 'smart' in some way aren't they?   There is some sort of data connection and a handshake negotiation on some level happens before any power flows?    That communication figures out what power is available and both sides do what ever configuring is needed before the power starts flowing.   That communication can also take care of linking accounts for billing if needed?  Again assuming there is some standards.

The other thing that seems crazy to me is very few to none of the charge ports appear to be set up to resist rain or snow.   They all have some sort of door or flap so why don't the flaps flip up and act as a little roof to deflect rain or snow?   Many of the connectors appear to actually angle up a bit so I would think that makes things even worse?    All these cars developed in the desert where rain isn't even a problem?

[MaR]

I did wonder how clunky some of those plugs are and if there were sag issues.   Sounds like there is.   

They are all 'smart' in some way aren't they?   There is some sort of data connection and a handshake negotiation on some level happens before any power flows?    That communication figures out what power is available and both sides do what ever configuring is needed before the power starts flowing.   That communication can also take care of linking accounts for billing if needed?  Again assuming there is some standards.

The other thing that seems crazy to me is very few to none of the charge ports appear to be set up to resist rain or snow.   They all have some sort of door or flap so why don't the flaps flip up and act as a little roof to deflect rain or snow?   Many of the connectors appear to actually angle up a bit so I would think that makes things even worse?    All these cars developed in the desert where rain isn't even a problem?

The chademo and CCS plugs are very clunky, with the chademo plug being the worst of the two. In all of the plug types, there are several pins of different lengths. The ground is the longest and makes connection first, next will be the actual charging conductor pins, and finally the two communication lines. Only when the communication lines have made contact and have communicated with the car does the charging system allow the charging lines to become energized. When you unplug the car, the communication lines disconnect first which turns off the charging lines so there is no possibility of arcing when you unplug. Physically unplugging the car is actually the secondary method of disconnecting the power, there is a trigger on the plug that has to be pressed to unlock the plug and that is the primary method of stopping the power flow when disconnecting the plug. In non-Tesla DC charging there is no communication on the lines that handles billing. If the station is not free, the station must be authorized first with a billing method (like a self serve gas pump). On the Tesla Superchargers, the billing is all automatic. Plugging in the car triggers the car to communicate with the billing server and authorize the charges. When the session is over, you can see the total charges in the history and your card on file will be automatically billed. There is no input required after you have your billing method setup. If you have free charging credits or there is a free event happening, you won't be billed for the usage. Tesla will often make Superchargers free in an area that is under an evacuation notice because of weather or some other event. As for rain or snow, the plugs have seals on them that keep water out. Snow and ice build up is a possibility but it seems to rarely cause any issues.

[Anderson]

What was the deal in the USA with phone chargers?   That was never a government mandate was it?    That must have been some sort of standards group?   Everyone except Apple went with micro usb?    Or is that sort of where we are now with Tesla being the Apple that isn't even close to the rest?    The Tesla super charger is basically a DC fast charger isn't it?   So technically making that work with other cars is really just a connector and software issue? 

I remember the phone thing because even Blacberry that was using mini usb had to switch,  I assumed that was part of the deal.   None of the other phone companies wanted to make it look they were switching to the blackberry connector so they invented or at least adopted the micro. 

It does seem like the industry and consumers would benefit from some sort of non government standards group.  Not being government they could likely be more dynamic when needed than government could be.   They could deal with things like the chargers as well as work with governments on safety related issues and things like training first responders.   They could also work with schools about education related to service.   

The way I've interpreted it is that everyone went with microUSB except Apple...which did "their own thing".  I've heard a few theories as to why Apple did that...one is that the Lightning charger is superior while the other was that it was an effort to create a captive audience.  There are probably elements of both aspects at play.

[Eric DeVirgilis CLC# 8621]

An auto exec who has the courage to speak the truth.

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people


https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665?fbclid=IwAR0GORe91cfVKL8NnpZ--2-T58CoKsu0KdQSRV6y2F-bibyj-8QmrJE6gZ8

[MaR]

An auto exec who has the courage to speak the truth.

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people


https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665?fbclid=IwAR0GORe91cfVKL8NnpZ--2-T58CoKsu0KdQSRV6y2F-bibyj-8QmrJE6gZ8

Toyota has been pushing fuel cell cars for years and years now so they have a vested interested in avoiding the pure EV route. They have finally had a change of heart recently and announced two EVs for the US market for 2021 seeing how fuel cell cars are basically a dead end.

[cadillacmike68]

The biggest issue with "charge time" is that people are still thinking like you have to go somewhere to get electricity. 99% of the time, I do my charging either at work or at home when I'm not using the car.

And that does not work on a long trip.

[Glen]

And that does not work on a long trip.

But as EVs become more plentiful hotels/motels will have chargers in their parking lots where you can charge you car. Restaurants along the major routes will also have them to charge while you eat.   

[TJ Hopland]

And that does not work on a long trip.

And if all you do is long trips an electric car is the wrong choice for you today.   Many people only drive 50 miles per day and that is well within the range of every e car sold today.   The other thing that helps with todays somewhat limited range and long charge times is many houses have more than one car and its very rare that both cars need to do a long trip at the same time.   Im  sure there are people that do need every car to do a long trip often but there are more where that isn't really needed.    It actually could work well for many people.   You could have your classic or big SUV for the long trips where you needed the space or comfort or towing but when not doing the long trips you have the EV for running around town.   

[francisthepig]

But as EVs become more plentiful hotels/motels will have chargers in their parking lots where you can charge you car. Restaurants along the major routes will also have them to charge while you eat.

They just put two chargers in at my local gas station....  Guess the owner sees the writing on the wall.

[TJ Hopland]

They just put two chargers in at my local gas station....  Guess the owner sees the writing on the wall.

And maybe a captive audience that will maybe come in and buy some stuff while they are waiting.   

For a gas station I wonder what the costs of a charging station are vs a pump as far as what it cost to install and maintain?  I would not think pumps are cheap on their own then you have the cost of the tanks plus installing them especially below ground.   I would guess just like gas there isn't going to be a lot of profit to be made from the fuel itself.   

Seems like a business opportunity, the travel oasis sort of thing where you own or at least profit some way from stuff to sell to travelers getting fuel and at least for now with slow charge times they will be there for a while so if you can even keep them there longer there will be more profit.

You look at many of the places you see the Tesla chargers you wonder if maybe the landlords give tesla a pretty good deal on the rent because they are bringing people to the area which is often a strip mall sort of place and other than few parking spaces its pretty low risk to the landlords because I assume Tesla pays for the rest.  Even if it goes bust and they don't remove their equipment its not like people could not still park there so no loss to the mall.   

[Anderson]

They just put two chargers in at my local gas station....  Guess the owner sees the writing on the wall.

The other perspective is that selling gas itself is generally pretty low margin (partly because of the degree to which many fuel wholesalers will vary their pricing between stations).  A lot of time you're looking at them making at most a few cents a gallon on a regular basis.  Most of their margin is "in the store", and with "pay at the pump" meaning most folks don't have to go into the store anymore...

Well, that means that where a customer who comes in for gas might have a 30-50% chance of coming in (if that), I'd bet that someone charging for 30 minutes is going to be predisposed to come in and get a sandwich, etc.  So electric cars coming in for a charge are likely to be substantially more profitable, per capita, than gas cars.  They might even be more profitable even if the station owner eats the cost of the charge.  That's just a function of where the margins are, etc.

[Big Apple Caddy]

They just put two chargers in at my local gas station....  Guess the owner sees the writing on the wall.

Gasoline pumps will slowly start to be converted to EV charging stations in the coming years and decades.

Instead of just regular, plus and premium, you will start to see things like the attached:

[MaR]

And that does not work on a long trip.

I have taken many, many long trips in EVs and the time difference is negligible. In fact, the last 1200 round trip I took had no difference in travel time.